Analyst Warns Fed Can’t Fix Economy – Says Bitcoin Is the Only Hedge

Peterson pointed to the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has historically fallen by 5% or more ahead of every recession in the past 50 years. Despite a similar decline between 2022 and 2025, the Fed has yet to cut rates, an anomaly he believes signals the economy is already in recession even if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) hasn’t officially declared one.

High Rates, Broken Supply Chains

According to Peterson, the roots of inflation lie in supply chain disruptions, not demand. He cited the fallout from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which created long-lasting shocks to energy, food, and critical minerals. “As long as interest rates remain high, growth will slow further, unemployment will rise, and consumption will be suppressed,” he said.

He added that the Fed’s tools are ineffective against supply-driven inflation, while consumers remain burdened with debt, stagnant incomes, and persistent food price pressures.

Stock Market Weakness

Peterson also questioned the resilience of equities, noting that most of the S&P 500’s gains are concentrated in a few large tech stocks. This, he argued, shows that the rally is not broad-based and could falter if macroeconomic headwinds intensify.

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Bitcoin and Gold as Safe Havens

With fiscal overspending and broken supply chains fueling what he sees as inevitable inflation, Peterson recommended that investors look to “hard assets” as protection. “The Fed can’t fix structural problems,” he said. “Gold and Bitcoin must be at the core of your portfolio if you want to survive.”

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