Bitcoin has entered what crypto analyst Doctor Profit calls “Stage 4” of a six-phase bear market model, following a steep correction from its October 2025 peak near $125,000–$126,000 to recent lows around $60,000.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has entered Stage 4 of a six-phase bear market model near $60,000.
- The current phase is defined by sideways consolidation and investor fatigue.
- Nearly half of Bitcoin’s supply is reportedly underwater.
- Stage 5 could see a decline toward $35,000–$45,000.
- A sustainable bull cycle may not return until late 2026 or 2027.
According to the framework, the current environment is not the final bottom. Instead, it represents a prolonged consolidation designed to exhaust investors before another major leg down.
Stage 4: The Sideways Fatigue Phase
Doctor Profit describes Stage 4 as a psychological trap. After rapid and aggressive selloffs in earlier phases, price action has slowed into a sideways grind. Volatility has cooled, but stress levels remain elevated.
Retail traders, already pressured by heavy losses, often sell during minor rallies. The mindset shifts from “buy the dip” to “sell the rip.” The analyst argues that recurring liquidity traps and leverage positioning during this range-bound structure are clearing out weak hands before the next decisive move.
Bitcoin is currently hovering near $60,000, with nearly 46% of the circulating supply reportedly held at a loss — a sign of structural weakness across the market.
Breakdown of the First Three Stages
The earlier stages focused on dismantling the bullish structure built during the 2025 rally.
Stage 1 began with the initial fracture from $125,000 down toward $105,000. The key technical trigger was a decisive break below the short-term holder cost basis, estimated between $105,000 and $109,500. While investors initially bought the dip, each bounce formed a lower high, signaling a regime change.
Stage 2 accelerated the downturn from $105,000 to $80,000. Forced liquidations, margin calls, and falling leverage intensified the slide. Macro concerns, including rising unemployment and recession fears tied to yield curve normalization, amplified bearish sentiment.
Stage 3 produced what the analyst calls a “dawn trap.” Bitcoin rebounded toward the $97,000–$107,000 range, attracting renewed optimism. However, volume rose without sustained price expansion, suggesting distribution rather than recovery. That zone, in his view, was an opportunity to add short exposure — not the start of a new bull trend.
What Comes Next: Stage 5 Capitulation
Doctor Profit’s roadmap projects a final capitulation phase — Stage 5 — targeting the $35,000–$45,000 range. This move would represent a complete reset of optimism and mark the area where long-term accumulation may begin.
He also cautions that short-term relief rallies are still possible, potentially back toward $97,000–$107,000. However, these would likely serve as distribution zones rather than sustainable reversals.
A lasting bullish turnaround, according to the framework, may not materialize until late 2026 or even 2027.
Broader Market Pressures
The bearish thesis is unfolding amid wider macro and regulatory uncertainty. Bitcoin’s fall below the short-term holder cost basis historically signals transitions between bull and bear regimes. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, a stronger US dollar, and expectations of tighter monetary policy are weighing on risk assets.
Markets are also awaiting developments surrounding the CLARITY Act, with the upcoming legislative process seen as a potential volatility catalyst.
For now, the model suggests the current sideways grind is less about stability and more about preparation — setting the stage for what could be one final washout before a new cycle begins.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
AuthorRelated stories
Next article
Source: https://coindoo.com/analyst-warns-bitcoins-bear-cycle-isnt-over-35k-could-be-next/
