Paramount (PSKY) vs. Netflix (NFLX): Who Wins the Warner Bros. Discovery Deal?

TLDR

• Paramount Skydance has until today (Feb. 23) to submit its best and final offer for Warner Bros. Discovery.
• Paramount’s last bid was $30 per share; Netflix’s all-cash offer stands at $27.75 per share.
• Trump posted on Truth Social warning Netflix to remove Susan Rice from its board or “face the consequences.”
• Paramount cleared the U.S. antitrust waiting period on Feb. 19 and received German regulatory approval.
• Online prediction markets give Netflix a 49% chance of winning the deal vs. 37% for Paramount.

Today is decision day for Paramount Skydance (PSKY) in its battle to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Paramount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock, PSKY

Warner Bros. gave Paramount until Feb. 23 to submit its best and final offer for the company. The deadline comes after Warner restarted merger talks with Paramount last week.

Paramount’s most recent bid was $30 a share for all of Warner Discovery, plus a 25 cents per share “ticking fee” for each quarter the deal hasn’t closed beyond the end of 2026.

Netflix (NFLX) is the rival in this race. The streaming giant agreed in December to buy Warner Bros. for $27.75 a share, with the Discovery Global cable assets spun out to investors. Netflix made that bid all-cash last month.

So Paramount’s offer is higher — but it’s not all-cash, which matters to Warner’s board.

Where the Odds Stand

Online prediction market Polymarket gives Netflix a 49% chance of closing the Warner deal. Paramount sits at 37%. That’s a tight race heading into what could be a defining week for both companies.

Warner stock slipped 0.1% to $28.72 ahead of Monday’s open. Netflix fell 0.6%. Paramount jumped 1%.

The big question now is whether Paramount raises its bid above $30 to outmuscle Netflix and close this deal.

Trump Enters the Picture

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social warning Netflix it would “face the consequences” if it didn’t remove former Obama and Biden administration official Susan Rice from its board.

That kind of political pressure adds a real wildcard to an already complicated situation.

Trump has a close relationship with Paramount CEO David Ellison and his father, Oracle (ORCL) executive chair Larry Ellison. The White House’s alignment with Paramount’s camp isn’t going unnoticed by investors.

On the regulatory front, Paramount cleared a key hurdle on Feb. 19 when the U.S. antitrust waiting period expired following the company’s compliance with a Department of Justice information request.

Germany’s foreign investment authorities also approved the deal, removing another barrier on the path to completion.

Paramount’s financials tell a more complicated story. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23 and an Altman Z-Score of 0.89 — a level that places it in financial distress territory. Its net margin sits at -0.05%.

Revenue growth over the past three years was just 0.3%, and the operating margin stands at 8.38%.

Analysts have a hold rating on the stock with a target price of $14.18. Institutional ownership is at 32.82%, with insider ownership at just 0.77%.

The P/S ratio of 0.26 and a P/B ratio of 1 suggest the market may be pricing the stock at a discount relative to its assets.

As of Monday morning, all eyes are on whether Paramount submits a raised bid before Warner’s deadline expires.

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