Crypto market sets odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000

Cryptocurrency prediction markets have assigned relatively low odds of Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming the $100,000 level as the leading digital asset continues to suffer losses.

In this regard, the latest contracts from Kalshi indicate that the probability of Bitcoin crossing $100,000 before March 2026 sits below 1%, reflecting minimal confidence in a rapid breakout, according to data retrieved on February 23.

The odds rise modestly to 4% for a move before April and 10% before May, suggesting traders see limited upside momentum through the second quarter. 

Additionally, expectations improve slightly into mid-year, with a 14% chance priced in for a break above $100,000 before June and 17% before July. By October 2026, the implied probability climbs to 27%, indicating that market participants see a stronger possibility of recovery in the latter part of the year.

Meanwhile, the most optimistic timeframe among the listed contracts is before January 2027, where traders assign a 37% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim the six-figure mark. 

While still below a majority probability, the steady increase across longer-dated contracts signals that the market views a return to $100,000 as more plausible over time rather than in the immediate term.

Bitcoin plunges below $65,000

The low odds of reclaiming the $100,000 level come during a period in which Bitcoin has suffered sustained losses, at one point plunging below the $65,000 mark on Sunday. The drop extended a broader correction from its late-2025 all-time high near $126,000.

The sell-off was driven largely by renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump, including plans to raise global tariffs to 15%, which unsettled global markets and pressured risk assets. 

Bitcoin, now closely correlated with equities, mirrored declines in S&P 500 futures. Thin liquidity amplified the move, triggering more than $400 million in long liquidations across crypto derivatives markets.

Institutional flows have also turned negative, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording nearly $3.8 billion in outflows over the past five weeks, pushing year-to-date withdrawals to about $4.5 billion. Major products such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have seen notable redemptions.

Bitcoin price analysis 

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $66,099, down almost 3% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, BTC is lower by more than 5%.

Technically, Bitcoin remains range-bound between roughly $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance. A break below $65,000 could open the door to $60,000, while a sustained move above $70,000 would be needed to signal a stronger recovery.

Featured image via Shutterstock