Home Depot (HD) Stock Beats Q4 Estimates Despite Sales Drop

TLDR

• Home Depot beat Wall Street’s Q4 earnings and revenue expectations with EPS of $2.72 vs. $2.54 expected and revenue of $38.20B vs. $38.12B expected
• Q4 sales dropped 3.8% year-over-year, partly due to one fewer week in the fiscal calendar
• The company raised its quarterly dividend 1.3% to $2.33 per share — its 156th consecutive quarterly dividend
• CFO Richard McPhail cited a “frozen housing environment” lasting three years and growing consumer uncertainty
• Home Depot guided fiscal 2026 for total sales growth of 2.5%–4.5% and is still evaluating the impact of Trump’s proposed 15% across-the-board tariff

Home Depot posted its Q4 fiscal 2025 results on Tuesday, beating Wall Street’s earnings and revenue estimates despite a drop in total sales.

Adjusted EPS came in at $2.72, topping the $2.54 analysts expected. Revenue hit $38.20 billion, just above the $38.12 billion consensus. It was the first earnings beat after missing estimates three quarters in a row.

Total sales fell 3.8% from the same quarter last year, dropping from $39.70 billion to $38.20 billion. The company said roughly $2.5 billion of that decline is explained by the prior year’s quarter having 14 weeks versus 13 weeks this time around.

The Home Depot, Inc., HD

Comparable sales — which strip out factors like store openings — rose 0.4% for the overall business and 0.3% in the U.S.

Net income for the quarter came in at $2.57 billion, or $2.58 per diluted share, down from $3.0 billion, or $3.02 per share, in the year-ago period.

Store transaction volume fell 1.6% year-over-year, but average ticket size rose 2.4%. Big-ticket purchases — those over $1,000 — were up 1.3%.

Pro Segment Picks Up the Slack

While do-it-yourself customers have pulled back on spending, the Pro segment held up better. McPhail confirmed Pro sales outpaced DIY in Q4, though he didn’t give specific numbers.

The company leaned into that trend through acquisitions. It bought SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion in 2024 and followed that with the purchase of GMS, a specialty building products distributor, for about $4.3 billion.

Home Depot opened 12 stores in fiscal 2025 and plans to add 15 more this fiscal year. It currently operates 2,359 retail stores and over 1,250 SRS locations.

Tariffs and Dividends in Focus

The company raised its quarterly dividend by 1.3% to $2.33 per share — marking the 156th consecutive quarter it has paid a cash dividend. The dividend is payable March 26, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2026.

On tariffs, McPhail said the company is still working through the numbers following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down parts of the Trump administration’s import duties. President Trump has since proposed a 15% across-the-board global tariff.

For fiscal 2026, Home Depot guided for total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of flat to 2%, and adjusted EPS growth of flat to 4% from the $14.69 base in fiscal 2025.

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday — its lowest level since 2022, per Mortgage News Daily.

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