US Index futures test key pivots after sell-off as Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq stabilise

Dow reclaims its central pivot, the S&P 500 rotates around a daily-intraday pivot confluence, and Nasdaq tests lower-gate support during the London session.

US Index futures desk report — Feb 24

London session update (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq)

After yesterday’s sell-off, all three major US index futures are trading in important intraday decision zones during the London session.

The common theme across Dow (YM), S&P 500 (ES), and Nasdaq (MNQ/NQ) is the same: rotation around value with neutral TPO reads, rather than immediate directional continuation. That usually means the market is still deciding whether to stabilise and recover, or whether to use balance as a pause before another downside move.

The difference today is location:

• Dow is back above the central pivot and POC, attempting to stabilise.
• S&P 500 is rotating around a high-importance CP (daily CP = intraday CP).
• Nasdaq is still heavier, trading around the lower gate and POC, with downside risk more active if support fails.

The maps are clear. The next move depends on acceptance, not prediction.

1) Dow Futures (YM) — Structure recovery attempt around CP

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 50,360.
• Central pivot (CP): 48,852.
• Lower range: 47,344.
• POC: 48,920.

Gates

• Upper gate: 49,208 – 49,428.
• Lower gate: 48,496 – 48,276.

London session position

Dow is trading around 48,896, holding just above the central pivot and near the POC.

Structure read

This is an important early response after yesterday’s sell-off. Price has stabilised back near value, but the market still needs to prove it can build above the internal structure to confirm a stronger recovery leg.

For now, this remains a rotational recovery attempt, with the CP and POC acting as the main decision point.

• Above CP supports rotation higher.
• Below CP reopens the lower-gate risk.

TPO/Internal structure read

The TPO read is neutral, rotating from the POC upward through internal references, which suggests auction repair rather than strong directional conviction.

Upside internal refs (if CP holds)

• 48,936.
• 48,988.
• 49,030.
• 49,072.
• 49,124.
• 49,200 (just ahead of upper gate).

A sustained hold above CP/POC and acceptance through this ladder would support a retest of the upper gate (49,208 – 49,428).

Downside internal refs (if CP fails)

• 48,768.
• 48,716.
• 48,674.
• 48,632.
• 48,580.

Failure to hold above the CP shifts focus back to the lower gate (48,496 – 48,276).

Dow desk take

Dow has done the first constructive thing by reclaiming the CP area, but it still needs acceptance above value to confirm the recovery attempt.
CP first, micro refs next, gate only after acceptance.

2) S&P 500 Futures (ES) — High-importance CP confluence in focus

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 6,979.50.
• Central pivot (CP): 6,866.50.
• Lower range: 6,764.00.
• POC: 6,862.50.

Gates

• Upper gate: 6,893 – 6,909.
• Lower gate: 6,842 – 6,827.

London session position

ES is trading around 6,863, just below the central pivot and just above the POC.

Structure read

This is one of the most important decision zones on today’s board because:

Intraday CP – Daily CP (6,866.50)

That alignment gives the CP extra weight. Both the broader daily structure and the intraday map are referencing the same level, so the market’s response here is likely to shape the next directional leg.

At the moment, ES remains in a neutral auction between POC and CP.

• Holding above CP would support a recovery rotation toward the upper gate
• Failing at CP keeps sell-off pressure active and raises the odds of another lower-gate test

TPO/Internal structure read

The TPO read is neutral, with price rotating around the POC and nearby internal references.

Upside path (if CP holds and accepts above)

• 6,872.
• 6,876.
• 6,880.
• 6,883.
• 6,887.

Acceptance through this internal ladder opens the path toward the upper gate (6,893 – 6,909).

Downside path (if CP fails)

• 6,860.
• 6,857.
• 6,854.
• 6,851.
• 6,847.

A failure around the CP and value area shifts focus to the lower gate (6,842 – 6,827).

ES desk take

ES is sitting at the most important intraday level on the map due to the daily/intraday CP confluence. The session remains rotational for now, but once acceptance is established on one side of the CP, expansion can follow quickly.

3) Nasdaq Futures (MNQ/NQ) — Lower gate test keeps downside risk active

Major intraday levels

• Upper range: 25,405.
• Central pivot (CP): 25,015.
• Lower range: 24,535.
• POC: 24,823.

Gates

• Upper gate: 25,107 – 25,163.
• Lower gate: 24,901 – 24,831.

London session position

Nasdaq is trading around 24,840, right around the lower gate and near the POC after yesterday’s sell-off.

Structure read

This is a crucial intraday level. Nasdaq is testing whether the lower gate can act as support and allow a rotation back toward the central pivot, or whether this is only a pause before another downside extension.

Compared with Dow and ES, Nasdaq still looks more fragile because it is holding lower in the structure.

• Hold lower gate → opens a path back toward CP (25,015)
• Lose lower gate → downside extension risk increases

TPO/internal structure read

The TPO read is neutral, rotating around the lower gate and POC, which fits a post-selloff balance/response phase.

Recovery path (if lower gate holds)

• Hold 24,901 – 24,831.
• Maintain support around POC 24,823.
• Rotate toward CP 25,015.

If CP is reclaimed, focus shifts to the upper gate (25,107 – 25,163) and higher refs:

Downside path (if lower gate fails)

Initial downside refs:

If pressure extends, next phase refs in focus:

• 24,350.
• 24,236.
• 24,144.
• 24,051.
• 23,937.

Higher-Level Trigger

• A move above the upper range (25,404) shifts focus to 25,794.

Nasdaq desk take

Nasdaq is the most sensitive of the three indices right now. It is not breaking down aggressively, but it has not shown confirmed recovery acceptance yet.
Lower gate first, then CP, then upper gate, only after acceptance.

Desk summary — What matters most into New York

Today’s London session is showing a balance-first response across all three US index futures after yesterday’s sell-off, but each index is sitting at a different point in its structure.

• Dow is trying to stabilise above the CP.
• S&P 500 is rotating around a high-confluence CP (daily + intraday).
• Nasdaq is still testing the lower gate/POC zone, making it the weakest of the three for now.

The key theme remains the same across the board: acceptance at the pivot zones will decide whether this becomes a recovery session or another leg lower.

Into New York, the best read is still structure-first:

• Dow: CP → micro ladder → upper gate.
• ES: POC/CP confluence → internal refs → gate test.
• Nasdaq: lower gate hold required first → CP recovery attempt.

If those pivot zones fail, the downside ladders reopen quickly — especially in Nasdaq.

Structure defines context; price reveals response.