Analysis: Bitcoin traders are showing signs of "excessive losses," potentially pushing the price below $44,000.

PANews reported on February 24th that, according to Cointelegraph, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin traders' realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1, indicating that investors are selling their positions at a loss. This is the first time such a signal has appeared since 2022. Historical data shows that when this indicator falls below 1, it is usually accompanied by at least six months of realized losses and foreshadows further price declines: in the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell 25% within six months after the indicator fell below 1, and in 2018, it fell more than 50% within five months.

Glassnode points out that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could "enter a full-blown over-loss realization phase," with the price decline potentially lasting more than five months. Based on the MVRV pricing range indicator, Bitcoin's current extreme low area is around $43,760, a level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms and is also within the potential bottom range of $40,000-$50,000 predicted by several analysts.