Bitcoin’s slump deepens: Retail struggles to absorb $2.81B outflow

Bitcoin [BTC] has entered one of its most bearish phases in recent months as liquidity continues to drain from the market.

Approximately $1.163 trillion has been wiped from Bitcoin’s market capitalization since its October peak of $2.515 trillion, and sentiment remains significantly depressed.

Market analysis shows that institutional investors have largely stepped aside, leaving retail participants to shoulder much of the current demand burden.

Investors remain underwater

Institutional investors—particularly U.S.-based participants—have shown clear disinterest in Bitcoin since the start of the year.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which acts as a proxy for U.S. institutional demand, has remained largely negative throughout 2026 to date.

This trend confirms that, relative to global markets, U.S. investors have been distributing rather than accumulating. The premium currently sits at -0.04.

The index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume.

A negative reading signals weaker demand from U.S. investors compared to offshore markets.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a clearer dollar-denominated picture of this selling pressure.

NetFlow data shows that roughly $2.81 billion worth of Bitcoin has exited these funds over the past two months. Of that total, $1.60 billion left in January, while $1.21 billion has flowed out month-to-date in February.

Retail could be gearing up

Analysis of activity on Binance reveals a pattern that hints at the potential for stabilization, although it does not eliminate ongoing selling pressure.

The Binance Buying Power Index tracks the relative strength of stablecoin inflows versus Bitcoin outflows on the platform. Over the past 90 days, the index has fallen sharply to a historic low of -0.07.

This level is notable because the last time the index reached -0.07 was in July 2024, when Bitcoin traded near $63,000. Bitcoin currently trades around the same price level.

When the index hit this level in mid-2024, price consolidated for roughly three months before rallying sharply in October, eventually reaching highs near $106,000.

Given Binance’s deep liquidity and strong retail participation, the responsibility for sustaining demand may now rest largely with smaller investors.

However, while current conditions mirror aspects of the 2024 setup, history also shows that deeper declines are possible.

In both 2022 and 2023, the 90-day Buying Power Index fell to extreme lows, dragging prices lower before a meaningful recovery began.

At this stage, measuring the strength and consistency of retail participation could prove critical in determining the next directional move.

What’s happening in the broader market

The spot market often offers the clearest view of cross-exchange activity, particularly as it captures retail flows.

Spot exchange netflow data from CoinGlass indicates that recent activity has tilted slightly toward net buying, though the magnitude remains modest.

Net spot purchases over the past three days total just $305 million—one of the weakest demand readings in recent months. This suggests that while buyers remain active, their conviction and capital deployment remain limited.

A shift in average daily demand from roughly $100 million to closer to $300 million would materially strengthen recovery prospects.

Until such expansion in spot demand occurs, Bitcoin’s price action is likely to remain fragile and highly sensitive to further institutional outflows.

Final Summary

• Institutional investors exited the market with $2.81 billion in capital outflows over two months.
• Retail remains the key source of hope, yet average daily spot demand over the past three days has dropped to roughly $100 million.