Tariff Fears Overtaken By High-Flying Optimism In U.S. Imports

This is a story of gold and computer servers.

Of Switzerland and Taiwan, Europe and Asia, the past and the future, a story of trepidation and optimism, and, in both cases, of air cargo.

It is the story of how imports of gold bars rose to a stunning value of $30.44 billion in January, the month President Trump took office to begin his second term, and then tumbled more than 99% to $189.13 million in June, just five months later – and why that happened.

It’s the story of how in that same time period the computer category, including servers, grew 54.12%. How the category grew steadily and assuredly to $21.48 billion in June while overall U.S. imports slid 16.32% – and why that happened.

It is the story of how, through the narrow prism of the U.S. merchandise trade data, AI optimism among the largest U.S. tech companies is overshadowing fear of investors on Wall Street.

In the middle is Main Street, companies big and small hoping to benefit from artificial intelligence but paying more attention to the near-term impact of tariffs on their businesses.

But first, it was a gold story about how U.S. imports from Switzerland soared in the winter amid trepidation over threats of tariffs to come and the impact of a Trump presidency. Gold imports, generally seen as a safe haven in difficult times, made JFK International Airport the No. 1-ranked port in the country in January and February. A gold category (HS 7115) soared to rank as the nation’s No. 1-ranked import those same two months. Then slid all the way to No. 198 in June.

By the time President Trump announced a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, alarmed by a rapidly increasing U.S. deficit, the gold rush was over, the demand sated.

Then, as we moved from winter to spring and into the summer, the story transitions. It transitions to the story of how the broad computer category (HS 8471) became the No. 1 import in April, May and continuing into June.

It happened with steady growth, as Microsoft, Amazon and the parent companies of Facebook and Google are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into the artificial intelligence race. They and their suppliers have been hiring, buying, building and betting heavily that AI will change the global economy just as Microsoft changed the world at the dawn of the personal computer era and as profoundly as Facebook, Amazon and Google have changed the world since the dawn of the internet.

It’s about a race to the future rather than a retreat to safety. It’s not clear who will be proven to have been right. Will the impact of tariffs that have quadrupled this year send the economy into recession or largely go unnoticed? Will the advancements of AI prove to be initially elusive or come quickly?

Are the big tech companies truly reacting out of optimism or is there at least a whiff of FOMO – fear of missing out?

One thing is for sure: As gold imports rose and then fell, the computer category went from 4.29% of all U.S. imports in 2024 to 5.74% through the first six months to – in a sign of the acceleration – 8.09% in June.

To provide a little perspective, in June, the value in the computer category was 42.12% greater than second-ranked passenger vehicle category and 90.68% greater than oil, the third-ranked import.

Within that computer category is a subcategory (HR 847150) where servers are counted. Global imports this year have grown 135.40%, feeding largely into Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport and Port Laredo in Texas.

A number of the companies benefitting from this outpouring of enthusiasm and dollars are in Taiwan. In U.S. imports in the computer category, Taiwan has seen its market share grow from 18.57% share behind Mexico and China for 2024 to 35.19% in June of this year, ahead of not only Mexico but Vietnam, Thailand and then China.

Taiwan, with those imports, catapulted to a record-high No. 4 rank among all U.S. trade partners for the value of its trade in June. And here’s three additional and even more impressive statistics:

• It ranked No. 1 among all nations trading with the United States for the value of its air cargo.
• Its trade grew more than with any other U.S. trade partner in June, up $7.42 billion.
• Its trade was the second-fastest by growth rate (53.85%) among the top 50, which accounted for 95.45% of all U.S. trade.

Taiwan adds another piece to this story. It is the story of another large tech company, Taiwan’s Foxconn, which rode Apple’s incredible rise. Today, its AI server business exceeds its iPhone business. While there are a number of other Taiwanese companies involved, Foxconn has caught another tiger by the tail and controls 40% of the global AI server market.

While global server imports grew 135.40% from January to June, U.S. imports from Taiwan have grown 583.27%, with O’Hare registering a 994.05% increase and LAX up 804.30%. The two accounted for 51.24% of the total. Dallas Fort Worth International Airport’s imports of servers from Taiwan in June grew 104.70% from January, presumably to feed the Texas server-farm market.

Within the merchandise trade data is the story of competing forces for attention: gold and the security it provides in times of distress and computer servers and the promise they hold at the dawn of the age of artificial intelligence. It’s a story whose ending has yet to be written.