The post What Past Cycles Say Happens Before the Bottom appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin price dropped 25% in 2022 and 50% in 2018 after similar on-The post What Past Cycles Say Happens Before the Bottom appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin price dropped 25% in 2022 and 50% in 2018 after similar on-

What Past Cycles Say Happens Before the Bottom

Bitcoin price dropped 25% in 2022 and 50% in 2018 after similar on-chain loss signals, a warning sign for BTC’s next move.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are selling at a loss for the first time since 2022, raising odds that the biggest cryptocurrency’s ongoing price correction may deepen in the coming weeks.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin is witnessing loss-driven selling that has historically lasted six months or more.

  • These signals surfaced during previous bear markets, preceding sharp downtrends each time.

BTC capitulation may last for another six months

On Monday, Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) slipped below 1.

The drop indicated that traders were dumping their BTC holdings at a loss, which is often linked to panic selling, margin pressure, or broader risk-off conditions.

BTC realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average). Source: Glassnode

Historically, breaks below 1 preceded at least six months of loss realization, according to on-chain data resource Glassnode. Meanwhile, a move back above 1 usually suggests that selling pressure is easing.

Traders often sell at a loss when they expect the downtrend to continue. In prior bear markets, loss-taking typically accelerated midway through the cycle, followed by more downside in Bitcoin’s price.

During the 2022 bear market, for instance, BTC declined 25% six months after its realized profit/loss ratio dropped below 1. In 2018, it plunged by over 50% in five months under similar conditions, as shown below.

BTC realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average). Source: Glassnode

The BTC price may continue its downtrend for another five months or more if history repeats. That will confirm “a full transition into an excess loss-realization regime,” Glassnode wrote.

Bitcoin price may bottom around $44,000

Bitcoin’s rising loss-realization may, therefore, drag the BTC price into its “extreme low” valuation zones.

These lows exist within the MVRV Pricing Bands metric, which maps where Bitcoin reaches extreme unrealized profit or loss zones. Historically, its lowest band (the blue line) has coincided with Bitcoin bear market bottoms.

BTC MVRV pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

As of February, the extreme low was around $43,760, a potential downside target by August if BTC’s price decline continue further.

Related: Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple hits 2022 levels: Where is BTC price bottom?

The level also sits within the broader $40,000–$50,000 bottom range flagged by multiple analysts as a potential late-2026 target.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-traders-excess-loss-realization-may-push-btc-price-below-44k?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

Market Opportunity
Bitcoin Logo
Bitcoin Price(BTC)
$65,801.13
$65,801.13$65,801.13
+2.85%
USD
Bitcoin (BTC) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

XRP Next Phase Could Mirror Prior Cycle Breakouts If This Happens

XRP Next Phase Could Mirror Prior Cycle Breakouts If This Happens

XRP continues to show strength in its long-term price structure. Crypto commentator XRP Update (@XrpUdate) highlighted in a recent post that the asset consistently
Share
Timestabloid2026/02/25 18:02
The Best Crypto Presale in 2025? Solana and ADA Struggle, but Lyno AI Surges With Growing Momentum

The Best Crypto Presale in 2025? Solana and ADA Struggle, but Lyno AI Surges With Growing Momentum

The post The Best Crypto Presale in 2025? Solana and ADA Struggle, but Lyno AI Surges With Growing Momentum appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. With the development of 2025, certain large cryptocurrencies encounter continuous issues and a new player secures an impressive advantage. Solana is struggling with congestion, and the ADA of Cardano is still at a significantly lower level than its highest price. In the meantime, Lyno AI presale is gaining momentum, attracting a large number of investors. Solana Faces Setbacks Amid Market Pressure However, despite the hype surrounding ETFs, Solana fell by 7% to $ 203, due to the constant congestion problems that hamper its network functionality. This makes adoption slow and aggravates traders who want to get things done quickly. Recent upgrades should combat those issues but the competition is rising, and Solana continues to lag in terms of user adoption and ecosystem development. Cardano Struggles to Regain Momentum ADA, the token of a Cardano, costs 72% less than the 2021 high and is developing more slowly than Ethereum Layer 2 solutions. The adoption of the coin is not making any progress despite the good forecasts. Analysts believe that the road to regain the past heights is long before Cardano can go back, with more technological advancements getting more and more attention. Lyno AI’s Explosive Presale Growth In stark contrast, Lyno AI is currently in its Early Bird presale, in which tokens are sold at 0.05 per unit and have already sold 632,398 tokens and raised 31,462 dollars. The next stage price will be established at $0.055 and the final target will be at $0.10. Audited by Cyberscope , Lyno AI provides a cross-chain AI arbitrage platform that enables retail traders to compete with institutions. Its AI algorithms perform trades in 15+ blockchains in real time, opening profitable arbitrage opportunities to everyone. Those who make purchases above 100 dollars are also offered the possibility of winning in the 100K Lyno AI…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 18:22
U.S. Authorities Seize $61M in Crypto Linked to Pig-Butchering Scam

U.S. Authorities Seize $61M in Crypto Linked to Pig-Butchering Scam

U.S. authorities have seized more than $61 million worth of cryptocurrency tied to an investment fraud scheme known as the pig-butchering scam. Federal agents worked
Share
Coinstats2026/02/25 17:46