Bitcoin’s Recent Bounce May Only Be Temporary: Here is Why

Bitcoin’s recent rebound may be more of a temporary relief rally than the start of a sustained uptrend, according to a new report shared by CryptoQuant,

The analysis centers on the Fund Flow Ratio, a metric that tracks how much BTC is flowing into Binance relative to the total BTC held on the exchange.

Fund Flow Ratio Remains Low

The Fund Flow Ratio currently sits at 0.012, which is considered low. This indicates that relatively little Bitcoin is being transferred to Binance compared to the exchange’s total BTC reserves.

Because Binance holds the deepest liquidity and is typically the primary venue for large institutional transfers, this metric is viewed as particularly important. A low ratio suggests limited immediate sell-side pressure, as fewer coins are being positioned on exchange for potential liquidation.

In short, aggressive spot selling is not dominating the current move.

Medium-Term Trend Still Weak

Despite easing structural selling pressure, trend indicators remain bearish. Both the 30-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA 30 and SMA 50) are still sloping downward. This suggests that, on a medium-term basis, momentum has not yet flipped bullish.

While conditions have improved compared to earlier months, the broader trend has not confirmed a reversal.

Price Drop to $66K Driven by Derivatives

Another key observation from the report is that the Fund Flow Ratio did not spike even as Bitcoin dropped sharply toward $66,000.

Typically, strong spot-driven selloffs are accompanied by spikes in exchange inflows, as holders move BTC onto exchanges to sell. That has not happened here.

Instead, the data suggests the decline was largely driven by derivatives markets and liquidations rather than heavy spot distribution. Spot sellers appear cautious rather than aggressive.

Conditions for a Short Squeeze?

With sell-side pressure muted on the spot side and the Fund Flow Ratio remaining low, CryptoQuant suggests the setup could support a relief rally.

If short positions remain crowded while exchange inflows stay subdued, upward price movement could trigger a short squeeze. That dynamic may slow downside momentum and fuel a temporary bounce.

However, without a structural shift in trend indicators, the move is currently viewed as a relief rally, not yet a confirmed bullish reversal.

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