Why Is Crypto Down Today? 6 Reasons Behind the February 2026 Market Crash

Quick Answer: Why Is Crypto Down Today?

Crypto is down today because of six overlapping factors that emerged and compounded throughout February 2026: Trump’s sudden 15% global tariff announcement, a collapse in U.S. tech stocks that dragged risk assets lower, record liquidations topping $2.56 billion in a single weekend, a structural reversal in institutional flows as Bitcoin ETFs turned net sellers, a critical technical breakdown below Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, and escalating U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that are pushing investors into cash and gold.

No single event caused today’s crypto decline. It is the cumulative result of months of distribution from the October 2025 peak at $125,000–$126,000, now accelerating into a phase analysts are debating as either a deep correction or the start of a full bear market cycle.

Reason 1: Trump’s 15% Global Tariffs Triggered a Fresh Selloff

On February 23, 2026, Trump announced a 15% global tariff hike — crypto fell more than 5% within hours

Crypto markets are now trading as a macro risk asset, not as a hedge against macro risk. When trade policy tightens, crypto sells off alongside equities.

The most immediate catalyst behind today’s crypto decline is the February 23 announcement of a 15% global tariff rate increase by President Trump. Bitcoin fell more than 5% to below $65,000 within hours of the announcement, as investors responded to fears of economic slowdown, tighter financial conditions, and reduced global trade flows.

The tariff shock arrived at a moment of already-weak sentiment. According to CoinGlass, crypto markets showed a strong negative correlation (-69%) with gold at the time of the tariff announcement — indicating a rates-sensitive, dollar-driven move rather than crypto-specific panic. The dollar strengthened as a safe-haven, and crypto sold off as a risk proxy. Crypto firms also felt the pain: Coinbase fell 4.1%, Robinhood dropped 4.5%, and Block lost 5% in the same session.

Reason 2: Tech Stocks Collapsed, Dragging Crypto With Them

Microsoft fell 10% on earnings. That single move rippled through global markets and into crypto overnight

Crypto’s correlation to tech equities has increased dramatically in 2025–2026. When the Nasdaq bleeds, Bitcoin bleeds with it.

In late January 2026, Microsoft reported quarterly earnings that disappointed investors, sending its stock down 10% in a single session. That move spread through U.S. equities and then filtered directly into crypto markets — a pattern that has become the dominant price dynamic of this cycle.

According to CNBC, the crypto market drop “came after a fall in global equities and a decline in the price of gold and silver” — a risk-off cascade that treated Bitcoin not as digital gold but as a leveraged tech bet. European and Asian markets followed. Gold fell alongside crypto, undermining the safe-haven narrative that crypto bulls had relied on for years.

The AI trade sell-off has added another layer of pressure. AI-related miners pursuing high-performance computing strategies have been forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings to support their balance sheets as financing conditions tightened — adding incremental spot supply at exactly the wrong moment.

Reason 3: Record Liquidations — “Black Sunday” and the $3.2B Day

$2.56 billion in crypto liquidations hit on February 1–2 alone — the 10th-biggest single-day event in history. Then February 5 broke a different record entirely

Liquidations don’t just lose money — they generate automated selling pressure that pushes prices lower, triggering more liquidations in a cascade.

The first weekend of February 2026 — which traders have labelled “Black Sunday II” — produced $2.56 billion in single-day liquidations, the 10th-largest such event in crypto history. But the record came days later: on February 5, Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted realized loss hit $3.2 billion — an all-time record — as traders rushed to exit simultaneously.

Over the full week surrounding that event, the crypto market absorbed an estimated $3 to $4 billion in total liquidations, with $2 to $2.5 billion concentrated in Bitcoin futures alone. On February 5, Bitcoin registered a -6.05σ move on the rate-of-change Z-score — placing it among the fastest single-day crashes in crypto history, according to VanEck’s digital assets research team.

Individual tokens were hit proportionally harder. XRP, which is roughly 1.8x more volatile than Bitcoin, saw amplified moves throughout each liquidation event. Why is XRP dropping and what happens next?

Reason 4: Institutions Are Now Net Sellers

On-chain data tells a contradictory story — while ETFs are selling, long-term holders are withdrawing from exchanges. In January 2026, Bitcoin exchange reserves hit multi-year lows as 20,000 BTC left exchanges in a single week.

This is the structural reversal that changes everything. In 2025, institutional buying via ETFs created a persistent demand floor. In 2026, that floor collapsed.

The most structurally significant development in the current crypto downturn is the reversal of institutional flows. In February 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were net buyers of 46,000 Bitcoin. In February 2026, CryptoQuant confirmed they are net sellers — a complete reversal that removes the institutional bid that had supported prices throughout 2025.

Digital asset investment products recorded two consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $1.7 billion, according to CoinShares. Year-to-date outflows total $1 billion — which CoinShares head of research James Butterfill described as “a marked deterioration in investor sentiment towards the asset class.”

The composition of sellers matters. While ETF holders are mostly sitting on paper losses, it is long-term Bitcoin holders — “Bitcoin OGs” — who are doing most of the selling, according to Bloomberg data. These are sophisticated actors with very low cost bases who are choosing now to distribute. That behaviour, combined with the institutional outflows, means the sell-side pressure is both sustained and well-funded.

Reason 5: Bitcoin Broke Below Its 365-Day Moving Average

The 365-day MA is one of the most widely watched long-term support levels in crypto. Breaking below it historically marks the transition from correction to bear market.

On a technical basis, the signal that alarmed long-term Bitcoin analysts most was the break below the 365-day moving average — a level that had held as support throughout the entire 2023–2025 bull market. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin broke below this average for the first time since March 2022, and has since declined 23% from the breakdown point.

The weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) has simultaneously dipped below 30 for the first time since mid-2022 — a level that historically marks either capitulation bottoms or the beginning of sustained bear markets, depending on macro conditions at the time.

This RSI pattern was first flagged in December 2025 — our analysis of Bitcoin bear market signals in 2025 identified exactly this breakdown before it materialized.

Matt Howells-Barby, VP at Kraken, has identified the $54,000–$69,000 range as a well-defined support zone where the market is most likely to form a base. Bitcoin is currently in the upper portion of that range at ~$63,000.

Reason 6: Geopolitical Risk Is Hitting All Risk Assets

U.S. military buildup near Iran and rising Middle East tensions are pushing investors toward cash — and away from risk assets like crypto

When investors fear geopolitical escalation, they sell risk first and ask questions later. Crypto, as the most liquid 24/7 risk asset, is always first to go.

Beyond tariffs, a growing U.S. military presence in the Middle East has raised fears of an armed conflict involving Iran that could disrupt global trade flows. President Trump signalled last week that he would decide within 10 days whether to launch strikes against Iran — creating an uncertainty overhang that is pushing capital into traditional safe havens (cash, short-term Treasuries) and out of speculative assets.

Gold and silver, which had previously served as safe havens during 2025’s Bitcoin drawdown, have also fallen — an unusual risk-off signal that suggests investors are moving to cash rather than simply rotating between asset classes. On the Friday following Microsoft’s earnings miss, silver fell 30% — its worst single day since March 1980. Bitcoin fell alongside precious metals rather than benefiting from the flight to safety, confirming its current position as a risk-on asset in the eyes of institutional capital.

Which Coins Are Down Most Today?

92 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies posted losses in the 24-hour period as of February 25, 2026. Altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin in the current environment, consistent with the typical bear-market dynamic where smaller assets lose more than Bitcoin during risk-off periods.

Is This a Bear Market? Historical Context

Key Bear Markets in Crypto History

Whether this constitutes a bear market is the central debate in crypto right now. VanEck’s research team characterises it as “orderly deleveraging rather than capitulation” — noting that leverage has normalized, volatility remains below prior bear-market levels, and market structure is intact. Coin Bureau’s Nic Puckrin takes a more bearish view, calling it “a transition from distribution to reset — these typically take months, not weeks.”

Historically, Bitcoin enters a correction phase roughly 12–18 months after reaching an all-time high — which would place the current cycle in a correction window consistent with prior patterns. The depth and duration of the drawdown remains uncertain.

CryptoQuant’s structural analysis supports this view — see our full breakdown of Bitcoin’s 2026 range-bound outlook and what it means for the rest of the year.

When Will Crypto Recover?

The signals that analysts are watching for a potential recovery inflection:

Bitcoin stabilizing above $69,000 (former 2021 ATH) would signal that the critical support level has been reclaimed. Matt Howells-Barby at Kraken notes this level is “significant” and its reclaim would shift the short-term technical outlook.

ETF outflows reversing. Two consecutive weeks of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs after the current outflow streak would signal institutional sentiment has bottomed. CoinShares tracks this weekly.

Tariff clarity. Markets need a clear signal on the direction of U.S. trade policy. If tariff fears ease — either through negotiation or a softening of the 15% rate — risk assets including crypto are likely to see a relief rally.

Fear & Greed Index moving above 25. The current reading of 11 (Extreme Fear) is historically where medium-term buyers accumulate. A move above 25 would suggest the fear-driven selling is exhausting itself.

Bottom Line: Why Is Crypto Down Today?

Crypto is down today because six macro and structural forces converged in February 2026: Trump’s 15% tariff shock, a tech stock collapse led by Microsoft, record liquidations of $2.56–$3.2 billion, institutional ETFs flipping to net sellers, Bitcoin’s first break below the 365-day moving average since March 2022, and geopolitical risk pushing capital into cash and away from risk assets.

Bitcoin has fallen 50% from its $125,000 October 2025 peak. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 11. Whether this is a deep correction or a full bear market cycle depends on whether macro conditions — particularly tariff policy and geopolitical risk — stabilize in the coming weeks. This page is updated daily with the latest market data.