Here’s how Cardano whales may be shaping ADA’s price action

The altcoin market continues to chop sideways, creating a setup that could lead to a breakout if investors rotate into altcoins, which is a common trend in the current market as FUD pushes traders to chase quick gains. 

Notably, Cardano [ADA] is following this playbook. With an 8.66% rally so far, the ADA/BTC ratio is recovering from its 47% dip in Q4, signaling that smart money may be positioning ahead of a potential trend shift.

Combined with ADA’s technical setup, the overall structure looks bullish. Quarterly, the altcoin has been chopping in a tight range above $0.20, a floor that triggered ADA’s rebound back in the 2020 cycle.

Taken together with rotational flows and historical patterns, the setup points to Cardano forming a bottom and potentially repeating its 2020-style rally, aiming for a near 1,500% move that took it to $3.15 by Q3 2021.

Adding to this bullish momentum, Santiment data shows notable whale accumulation. Over the past six months, smart money has quietly been building positions, with wallets holding 100k–100 million ADA adding +819.4 million, accounting for +1.6% of the total supply.

And yet, this supply shock hasn’t moved the price much, raising the question: Is Cardano’s muted momentum a sign of heavy selling pressure, or is smart money simply profiting from volatility?

ADA whales position ahead of rising short liquidity

To gauge whale positioning, it’s key to ask why they are accumulating. 

From a technical perspective, ADA remains one of the worst-performing assets. Despite whale accumulation, the altcoin closed Q1 down 60%, the largest loss among top-cap coins, reinforcing its bearish market structure. 

The result? Short liquidity is stacking up. Given these technicals, it’s natural for traders to bet on the downside, creating short liquidity bands, one of which was liquidated in January as ADA reclaimed the $0.40 level.

Notably, ADA quickly slid back below that level, muting the impact of the short squeeze. Now, a similar setup is forming, as Cardano’s 12H chart shows the price approaching another short leverage zone near $0.27.

With bullish technicals and ongoing whale accumulation, ADA could squeeze this pocket and push back above the $0.30 resistance. On the flip side, if it fails to break out, it could be a textbook case of manipulation.

The logic is simple: With on-chain accumulation and rising short leverage, Cardano whales may be profiting by trapping shorts and selling into the move, creating a cyclical pattern that drives ADA into a volatility loop, a setup worth watching closely.

Final Summary

• Smart money is quietly building positions, with ADA showing bullish technicals and historical patterns pointing to a potential market bottom.
• Rising short leverage creates a loop, giving whales the potential to trap shorts and push ADA toward $0.30 resistance, or manipulate price if a breakout fails.