Opec+ to mull 137,000 bpd oil output increase for April

• Eight Opec+ members meet on March 1
• Producer group paused increases for Q1
• Brent crude price near highest since July

Opec+ is likely to consider raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April, three sources with knowledge of Opec+ thinking said as the group prepares for peak summer demand and a price boost from tensions between the US and Opec member Iran.

The resumption of output increases after a three-month pause would allow Opec leader Saudi Arabia and members such as the UAE to regain market share at a time when other Opec+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions while Kazakhstan recovers from a series of oil production setbacks.

Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet on March 1.

In a separate development, Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a US strike on Iran disrupts flows from the Middle East, said two sources familiar with the Saudi plan.

US President Donald Trump has said he is considering a strike on Iran to pressure its leaders to agree a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Opec and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not reply immediately to requests for comment.

The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 percent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Despite fears that a supply glut would hit prices this year, the Brent crude benchmark is trading near $71 a barrel. That’s not far from a seven-month high of $72.50 reached this week on tensions between the United States and Iran.

All three sources, who declined to be identified by name, said an increase of 137,000 bpd by the eight members for April was a likely decision on March 1. A fourth source said a pause for April was also a possibility.

An increase of 137,000 bpd for April would be the same as those agreed for December, November and October last year.

Opec+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, pumps about half of the world’s oil.

Further reading:

• In any Trump strike on Iran, Hormuz is the real prize
• Shadows and skulduggery on the open seas
• Oil prices caught between geopolitics and market reality