How Ukraine’s Air Defence Is Evolving

Ukraine is enduring a Russian assault unprecedented in modern times. The nation survives thanks to an advanced and ever-changing shield, one which needs constant improvement as the threat grows.

The sheer scale of the Russian strategic assault in the last four years in staggering. In addition to vast numbers of short-range bombs close to the front lines, the Russians have attacked Ukraine’s cities with some 13,671 missiles and 88,218 attack drones.

While the rate of missile attacks has fallen as stockpiles run down and missiles are fired as fast as they can be made, the number of incoming drones has increased dramatically year on year as Russia ramps up production. In 2026 to Feb 22^nd Russia launched 365 missiles and a staggering 10,815 attack drones.

And yet Ukraine survives – and is stopping ever more attackers even as their number increase.

Mass Precision Attacks

The attacks are on a greater scale and cArried out with more precision than anything seen previously.

During WWII, England came under a similar assault from Nazi V-1 Doodlebugs –a jet-powered “pilotless aircraft” and forerunner of the modern attack drone – and V-2 ballistic missiles. Roughly 9,500 V-1s and 1,500 V-2s were launched.

In the “War of the Cities” between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, both sides targeted population centers with ballistic missiles. Iraq launched less than 600, Iran less than 200.

During the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq fires less than 100 Scud ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia, Israel and other nations.

These earlier weapons were extremely inaccurate – the average miss distance of the V1 was eight miles, for the V-2 it was around 3 miles, barely good enough to hit a city sized target. Iraqi Scuds were accurate to about half a mile.

Modern weapons are far more accurate. The Shahed, aided by low speed and satellite guidance, can strike within 15 meters of the aim point. This is accurate enough to hit the power stations, electricity distribution equipment and apartment blocks which are typical targets. More recently Shaheds have been fitted with cameras allowing operators to strike precise, even moving targets like passenger trains.

The Russian assault has the potential to cause both massive loss of life and the complete destruction of infrastructure. The reason that it has failed has been an advanced, layered air defence system which has developed to stop everything from a hypersonic Kinzhal missile coming in at 4,000 mph from 60,000 feet to Shaheds at 120 mph staying below 100 feet.

A New Type of Defence

This layered defense involves interconnected radar and other sensor systems, and a variety of “effectors” to bring down missiles and the increasing number of drones.

The longest-range systems are the vital U.S.-supplied Patriots and Soviet S-300s. The Patriot is the only system proven able to intercept ballistic missiles

The medium range systems, working at less than 50 miles, include the NASAMS and IRIS-T, which score the majority of kills against cruise missiles.

At short range of a few miles there are a variety of portable, shoulder-fired missiles as well as the British-supplied Raven and others.

Up close, the German Gepard with twin 35mm automatic cannon comes into its own, as well as older Soviet 23mm weapons, plus a huge variety of heavy machine guns including venerable Maxim guns from 1910 (which can actually shoot down a Shahed) used by mobile fire teams.

More recently Ukraine has also started deploying Sky Sentinel robot gun turrets . These are low-cost systems guided by radar and cameras and with an AI brain, able to keep watch and respond instantly and accurately 24 hours a day.

The ground forces are supported by aircraft, including F-16s plus a number of helicopters and light aircraft which chase down and destroy Shaheds with machinegun fire. Recent reports highlight an An-28 twin-engine turboprop, with a door gunner equipped with night-vision goggles and an M136 minigun to shoot down drones. This aircraft already has some 158 kills to its credit.

However, perhaps the biggest counter-drone success has been the rapid development and deployments of tens of thousands of small interceptor drones like the Sting from Wild Hornets. These cost just a few thousand dollars but have a hit rate of around 70%. One Ukrainian operator from the 1020th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment with the callsign “Miguel” reportedly downed 24 Shahed drones in a single night with Sting interceptors.

These interceptors, many of which are supplied via fundraisers like Serhii Sternenko, currently account for 30% of the Shahed-types drones downed according to the Ukrainian Air Force – up from zero just a year ago. The rate is still rising and scaling these interceptors and training crews is an ongoing challenge.

Many of the defensive systems have been provided by fundraising efforts, notably Ukraine’s official fundraising platform, UNITED24, which funded the Sky Sentinel automated gun turrets. This week UNITED24 launched Sky Defense, a major campaign to fund improved air defense. The project aims to protect both civilians and those fighting on the frontlines – you can donate here.

At the time of writing, the intercept rate is around 84%. Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov aims to increase that to 95% in the coming year. Ukraine endures, not just because of the resilience of its people but thanks to a strong and rapidly-evolving defensive system.