New swing state Trump polling is making 'Democrats jump for joy': data analyst

President Donald Trump is constitutionally prohibited from serving a third term in the White House, but new polling shows he would have a hard time winning two key states he picked up just over a year ago.

The 79-year-old president won both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on his way to re-election in 2024, but CNN's Harry Enten said his unpopularity in those key battleground states could cost Republicans their congressional majorities this fall.

"You know, as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go, so go the nation, and right now the president is going down, going down like Sonny Liston," Enten said. "What are we talking about here? Okay, Trump's approval rating, key swing states in Wisconsin down, down – negative-10 points. Of course, he won that state by about a point back in 2024. How about Pennsylvania? Down down to minus-15 points on the net approval rating in Pennsylvania, a state he won in 2016 and 2024 lost in 2020. As I said, as go Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so goes the nation. In this case, Donald Trump is going down in both of them."

Both states have been closely contested in each of the last three elections, and Enten looked into the reasons that Trump is sinking so soon after winning there.

"What is driving these numbers, what is driving President Trump down?" Enten said. "It's his handling of the economy. It's this thing that we're seeing nationally impacting in the key swing states, because just take a look here. Okay, Trump and the economy, swing state voters, Pennsylvania, Trump's economic approval rating 56 percent. That doesn't work for Republicans, that doesn't work for Donald Trump either. How about in Wisconsin, say Trump's policies raise inflation again, you get the majority, 53 percent."

"These numbers tracking very closely with how those voters feel overall in those two key swing states, and again, Donald Trump underwater, his economic disapproval, well more than a majority at this point, and look at this, say Trump's policies raise inflation, 53 percent," he added. "How do you work with that if you're Donald Trump or Republicans?"

Those numbers are a bad sign for GOP chances in November, the data analyst said.

"We talk about Donald Trump but the question is always does that make its way down ballot?" Enten said. "Does that in fact impact the House races in Pennsylvania, the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Just take a look here, okay, U.S. House in Pennsylvania, 2024 results look very similar to how they voted for president. Republicans won it by two points, but look at this – it's a different world, it's a different world. Look at this, the 2026 polling, Democrats are ahead by six points on the generic ballot in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania."

"So what we're seeing up top is funneling its way down ballot, and these are the types of numbers that have to make Democrats jump for joy, because these are the types of numbers that suggest that they are, in fact, going to take back the House come November," he added.

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