Trading Moments: Tech stock pullback drags down the market; BTC attempts to reclaim the $70,000 mark but fails.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

U.S. stocks were dragged down on Thursday by weakness in technology stocks. The S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6908.85, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 1.18% to 22878.38, almost erasing Wednesday's gains. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.03% to 49499.20. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds across all maturities generally declined, with the 10-year yield falling below 4% , its lowest level since the end of November last year.

Amid rising risk aversion, the debate over Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has resurfaced, with former Governor Stephen Milan sending strong dovish signals. He publicly called for a full 100 basis point rate cut in 2026, emphasizing that excessive compliance costs are suppressing bank lending, while weak inflationary pressures are providing support for the future rate-cutting stance of new Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions further amplified the market's risk-averse instincts, with WTI crude oil falling slightly by 0.15% after a period of wide fluctuations. Vance has entered the US-Iran negotiations and will meet with the Omani foreign minister on Friday, aiming to push forward US-Iran nuclear talks and prevent war. On the other hand, Pakistan launched a fierce airstrike against the Afghan Taliban, declaring that its "patience has run out" and initiating open war. The border conflict between the two sides has resulted in more than 70 deaths since last October.

The AI ​​Sector: Trends and Events

The AI ​​sector is at a critical juncture of narrative restructuring, with funds gradually shifting from a "shovel seller" logic to application-side considerations. According to Goldman Sachs data, short positions in the software industry have reached a seven-year high, while long positions have plummeted. Amid this narrative shift, a deep-dive report released by Deutsche Bank has sparked serious reflection on Wall Street. The report projects two extreme endgames for AI development: either, as Marx predicted and Musk envisioned, AI will completely replace labor, triggering a restructuring of capitalism; or history will repeat itself, with AI merely serving as a technology to empower humanity.

Furthermore, after reporting a 73% year-on-year revenue increase, Nvidia's stock price plummeted 5.7% intraday due to market concerns about the sustainability of AI spending, ultimately closing down 5.49%. Meanwhile, retail investor net buying of Nvidia stock reached a new high since 2012. Rumors also circulated that DeepSeek V4 models were offering early access to domestic suppliers. Its new model, codenamed Sealion-lite, boasts millions of context windows and native multimodality, seen as a significant signal that it might bypass the Nvidia ecosystem, exacerbating panic selling in the chip sector. Baidu , also focusing on application development, delivered a transformation report, with its AI cloud business revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan for the first time in a single year. Its core AI business now accounts for 43% of its total general business revenue, successfully offsetting the decline in its traditional business.

Faced with the efficiency revolution of the AI ​​era, enterprises have begun to make drastic cuts to survive. Fintech giant Block announced 4,000 layoffs, reducing its workforce by nearly half. CEO Jack Dorsey clearly stated that the company will fully bet on AI to drive operational efficiency. This decisive organizational restructuring has won the fervent support of the capital market, with the stock price surging more than 24% in after-hours trading.

Bitcoin price

The crypto market is shrouded in risk aversion, with the Fear & Greed Index rising slightly to 13, but still not escaping extreme panic. Affected by the pullback in US tech stocks and rising macroeconomic risk aversion, Bitcoin failed to recover the $70,000 mark and fell below the $68,000 trendline. Despite three consecutive days of net inflows into US spot ETFs, panic remains strong in the derivatives market. This Friday will see the settlement of $7.8 billion in Bitcoin options, with the biggest pain point at $75,000. Current market sentiment is cautious; according to Unbias data, 57% of analysts are bullish in the short term.

Bearish view

The core logic of the bears lies in the uncertainty of macro liquidity and the suppression of historical cyclical patterns. They believe that the current rebound is merely a bull trap in a bear market, and the real bottom is far from being reached.

• Trader Roman pointed out that in previous bear market cycles, the decline was close to 80%, while the current decline is only about 53% from the high point, and there are no signs of reversal on the monthly and weekly charts.

• Analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes that the shortest Bitcoin bear market in history lasted 365 days, while the current bear market has only lasted about 140 days. It is too early to talk about the end of the bear market, as the 200-week moving average is providing strong downward pressure.

• Analyst Willy Woo warned that if the global macroeconomic environment weakens significantly, $30,000 or even $16,000 would be the last line of defense for maintaining the long-term bull market structure.

bullish view

The bulls, on the other hand, are looking for support from on-chain data, institutional fund flows, and structural cycles. They firmly believe that selling pressure has dried up and the market is on the eve of a reversal.

• Binance Research believes that Bitcoin is nearing a structural bottom. The current divergence between BTC and the global M2 money supply stems from structural distortions. Once software stocks bottom out, the mechanical correlation between technology stocks and Bitcoin will subside.

• Analyst Willy Woo said that the current selling pressure from investors seems to have subsided, and the market may consolidate sideways. The fourth quarter would be a good time to end the bear market trend.

• Santiment points out that the number of wallets holding more than 100 BTC continues to grow, indicating that wealth is concentrating in "whales," and historically, the increase in such whale wallets has often occurred during the accumulation phase that supports price recovery.

Ethereum price quotes

Ethereum's price action is highly correlated with the broader market, fluctuating slightly around $2,000. On-chain data shows that ETH's MVRV Z-Score has fallen to its historical range, and Ethereum's volatility on Binance has surged to a 12-month high, suggesting the market is undergoing a significant repricing. This Friday, $961 million worth of Ethereum options will expire, with a put/call ratio of 0.77 and a maximum resistance level at $2,200. Current market sentiment is in a recovery phase after extreme pessimism, with bargain hunters eager to buy.

Bearish view

The bearish camp is primarily concerned about the resistance from the dense pool of trapped investors above and the risk of liquidation in the derivatives market. They believe that without strong fundamental catalysts, the rebound is unlikely to be sustained.

• Market analyst IncomeSharks points out that Ethereum is facing repeated rejections from the super trendline on the daily chart, with strong channel resistance around $2,250, and sellers still in control.

• Analyst Dom cautioned that if Ethereum fails to hold above the $2,140 volume-weighted average price (VWAP), the price will remain trapped within its established trading range.

• There is still $2.66 billion in long liquidation activity lurking around the $1,800 mark for Ethereum.

bullish view

The bullish camp sees strong signs of a bottoming out and rebound in valuation repair, reversal of funding rates, and divergence from US stocks.

• Renowned economist Krugman has stated that Ethereum is showing early signs of bottoming out, marking the first time since last year that a bullish divergence has been observed between cryptocurrencies and US stocks. He suggests that the crypto market may bottom out before US stocks do.

• Analyst Trader Tardigrade believes that Ethereum is currently testing the multi-year support trendline of $1,800-$1,900. Historical experience suggests that once this level is held, the price will experience a parabolic, explosive surge.

• Analyst Pelin Ay points out that the funding rate for ETH on Binance has turned sharply positive from negative, indicating that the previously aggressive short sellers have been squeezed out and the market structure is shifting in favor of the longs.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on February 27)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$254 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.

• Ethereum ETF: +$6.5742 million, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows.

• SOL ETF: +$507,800

• XRP ETF: +$1,216,300

• Fear of Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Panic)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, ENSO, CFG

• Sector Performance: GameFi sector rose 6.21%, AI sector fell 2%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 94,779 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $196 million, including $60.3056 million in BTC liquidations, $48.453 million in ETH liquidations, and $8.8097 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Binance Alpha will launch Fabric Protocol (ROBO) on February 27th.

• Binance will delist spot trading pairs such as DOT/BRL and GRT/ETH on February 27.

• Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 253 million tokens, worth about $49.4 million, on February 28.

• Grass (GRASS) will unlock approximately 55 million tokens, worth about $13.48 million, on February 28th.

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Power Protocol up 71.4%, Decred up 13.3%, Stable up 9.9%, Internet Computer up 7.8%, and MemeCore up 6.5%.

Hot News

• LayerZero DAO destroyed all remaining STGs, officially renaming them ZRO.

• SBI launches Japan's first trust-based yen stablecoin, JPYSC, with a planned launch in the second quarter.

• An insider address on Polymarket betting on Axiom may point to a Pump.fun partner, but ZachXBT denies any connection between the two.

• Avalanche ecosystem accelerator Colony announced it will cease operations at the end of this quarter.

• Report: Over half of the top 25 US banks are piloting crypto services; approximately 716 million cryptocurrency holders worldwide.

• Proposed rules from the US OCC for stablecoin regulation: Stablecoin redemptions will not exceed 2 business days, and if daily redemptions exceed 10% of the circulating supply, the redemption period can be extended to 7 days.

• Magic Eden plans to close its Bitcoin and EVM markets and terminate its multi-chain wallet.

• Cardone Capital is preparing to tokenize approximately $5 billion in real estate assets.

• Anthropic stated that it rejects the Pentagon's "final proposal".

• Foreign media reports: PayPal and Stripe are not currently in negotiations, and PayPal has no plans to sell itself.

• Block is laying off 4,000 employees, nearly half of its workforce.

• Deribit: Approximately $8.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire this Friday.

• Vitalik has sold a total of 16,420 ETH, cashing out approximately $32.84 million.