The Atlanta Hawks Are The Biggest Losers Of The NBA’s Tank Race

The NBA has ratcheted up its war on tanking in recent weeks.

First, the league fined the Utah Jazz $500,000 for resting healthy starters for the fourth quarter of a few competitive games and fined the Indiana Pacers $100,000 for holding out Pascal Siakam and two other starters in a game even though they “could have played under the medical standard” in the NBA’s player participation policy. At All-Star Weekend a few days later, NBA commissioner Adam Silver told reporters that “every possible remedy” was on the table to combat tanking.

After the All-Star break, the NBA held a call with all 30 teams’ front offices to discuss some of the changes that it’s considering implementing, according to Joe Vardon and Sam Amick of The Athletic. The league did confirm that it won’t change anything ahead of this year’s draft, though.

That’s bad news for the Atlanta Hawks, who might be the biggest loser from this year’s tank race.

The Hawks made a shrewd trade during the 2025 NBA draft when they sent the No. 13 overall pick to the New Orleans Pelicans for the No. 23 pick and an unprotected 2026 first-round pick. That 2026 first-rounder is the better of the Pelicans or Milwaukee Bucks’ picks.

For most of the season, that was on pace to be a premium pick. One month ago, the Pelicans had the NBA’s worst record at 10-36. But since they don’t own their first-round pick, they have no incentive to tank this season.

The same can’t be said for their counterparts at the bottom of the NBA standings.

The Surging Pelicans Are Hurting The Hawks

Since the Pelicans aren’t engaged in tanking shenanigans, they’ve gone 8-6 over the past month. They also have the 13th-easiest remaining strength of schedule, so they could have even more of an opportunity to move up the lottery standings.

The Pelicans just began a six-game road trip, although three of those games are against the Utah Jazz twice and Sacramento Kings. They then return home to face the Washington Wizards. It might be a challenge for them not to go at least 4-3 over that stretch.

The Pelicans’ schedule does stiffen up from there, as 10 of their next 11 opponents are at least in the play-in conversation. Games against the Kings and Jazz in early April could go a long way toward shaping the final lottery standings, which would likely result in some historic chicanery.

Unfortunately for the Hawks, that might be too little, too late. If the Pelicans do beat the Jazz, Kings and Wizards over the next week-and-a-half, that could push them high enough in the lottery standings that even the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies might pass them. Each spot they rise would be extremely costly odds-wise, too.

The teams with the three worst records in the league all have a 14.0% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick and better than a 50-50 shot of landing a top-four pick. The Pelicans currently have the fifth-worst record, which would give them a 10.5% chance at No. 1, a roughly 42% chance at a top-four pick and nearly a 40% chance at either No. 6 or No. 7. That’s a fairly steep drop.

The floor of the pick matters almost as much as the ceiling. Since the lottery decides only the top four slots in the draft, teams can’t fall more than four spots in the pre-lottery standings.

With the fifth-worst record, the Pelicans would have an 8.7% chance of slipping to No. 8 and 0.6% chance of dropping all the way to No. 9. Whichever team finishes with the worst record can’t fall lower than No. 5.

While AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cameron Boozer could all be headed to Atlanta in June via the Pelicans’ pick, the Pelicans are hurting the chances of that happening with their recent winning ways. But since they don’t have control over this year’s pick, they have zero incentive to tank. That’s the platonic ideal for Silver and the NBA, but it’s a nightmarish end to the season for the Hawks.

Giannis’ Looming Return Isn’t Great, Either

In late January, Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a calf injury and said he expected to miss 4-6 weeks because of it. He’s already been ruled out for Friday’s game against the New York Knicks, which will be the 14th straight game that he misses, but Bucks head coach Doc Rivers recently shared a positive update about him.

Like the Pelicans, the Bucks also don’t have control over their first-round pick. They receive the worse of their own and the Pelicans’ pick.

With Giannis sidelined, the Bucks could have embraced a tank to increase their probability of landing an impactful pick either way. They went the other way, though. With Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins both healthy and new addition Cam Thomas showing zero hesitation to shoot, the Bucks have gone 8-2 over their past 10 games.

The Bucks are only 1.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Charlotte Hornets and two games behind the ninth-seeded Miami Heat in the East. They aren’t likely to be legitimate championship threats this year, but they at least have a real shot of sneaking into the play-in tournament, where anything can happen.

The Bucks also have the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, per Tankathon. Even if they don’t make it into the play-in tournament, they are not out-tanking the Wizards, Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets or Chicago Bulls. Nor are they out-tanking any of the bottom five Western Conference teams.

The Bucks figure to go into lottery night with the league’s 10th-worst record at worst. If they can jump the Hornets, Hawks or Miami Heat, their pick could be in the mid-first round instead. Either way, they’ll have a small chance of landing a top-four pick.

If the Bucks do finish with the 10th-worst record, they’d have roughly a 13.9% chance of winning a top-four pick and more than a 20% chance of falling to either No. 11 or No. 12.

Teams in that range have won the lottery in each of the past two years, but the math is the math. Over time, the results will start to better reflect the odds. As such, the Hawks shouldn’t be banking on the Bucks’ pick as their potential savior.

If every team was still trying to field competitive lineups at this time of year, there’s no telling where the Pelicans and Bucks would be in that league hierarchy. But they’re basically the only two teams outside of the play-in conversation that aren’t actively trying to lose games.

That’s good news for any of their fans who want to catch a game in the next month. That’s terrible news for the Hawks, who might have been banking on that Pelicans or Bucks pick to deliver a franchise cornerstone in June.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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