Gold Surges Past $5,200 as Bernstein Projects $6,100 by Decade’s End

TLDR

• Precious metal advanced 0.9% to reach $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, extending its winning streak to seven months
• Investment firm Bernstein elevated its projections to $4,800 by 2026 and $6,100 by the end of the decade
• Sustained central bank purchasing and exchange-traded fund accumulation underpin optimistic forecasts
• Trade policy ambiguity and Middle Eastern diplomatic tensions boost safe-haven appetite
• Major mining company Newmont (NEM) received an upgrade to Outperform with $157 target price

Bullion prices advanced 0.9% to settle at $5,232.21 per ounce on Friday, marking the precious metal’s seventh straight month of gains. Meanwhile, April-delivery futures contracts in the United States climbed 1.2% to $5,253.20.

The yellow metal has appreciated 6.5% during February. Across the preceding seven-month period, prices have surged 58%.

This upward momentum reflects market participants’ reaction to persistent questions surrounding Washington’s tariff strategy and ongoing diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran regarding Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Washington began implementing a 10% universal import duty on Tuesday. That baseline figure is scheduled to increase to 15% for certain nations, according to statements from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

American and Iranian representatives engaged in indirect negotiations in Geneva on Thursday. The Omani intermediary indicated advancement was achieved, with technical-level discussions scheduled for next week in Vienna.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities fell to a three-month nadir on Friday, diminishing the opportunity cost associated with holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold — a dynamic that has previously supported precious metal valuations.

Bernstein’s Long-Term Outlook

Investment brokerage Bernstein has elevated its extended-term gold price projections, now anticipating $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and $6,100 by the decade’s conclusion.

Analyst Bob Brackett constructed the forecast using a methodology centered on net central bank acquisition activity and exchange-traded fund movement patterns, combined with anticipated effects from Federal Reserve interest rate reductions.

Central bank acquisition activity decelerated in 2025 yet remains substantially elevated compared to pre-2022 benchmarks. Survey information indicates 95% of monetary authorities anticipate worldwide gold reserve expansion throughout the coming year.

ETF inventories have increased considerably since the middle of 2024. Brackett characterized ETFs as a “swing” variable — one capable of magnifying price movements when capital inflows accelerate.

Current market pricing incorporates two to three Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2026. Brackett observed that gold has historically appreciated an average of 6.53% during the twelve months subsequent to rate cuts, suggesting potential aggregate returns approaching 13% from monetary easing alone.

Newmont Upgrade

Bernstein simultaneously upgraded mining giant Newmont (NEM) to Outperform status, establishing a $157 price objective. The brokerage elevated its EBITDA projection for the mining operation by 26% to $21.9 billion, propelled by its enhanced gold market outlook.

NEM shares advanced 2.33% during Friday’s session.

In related precious metals markets, silver spot prices jumped 4.4% to $92.20 per ounce, positioning for a 6.2% monthly advance. Platinum spot prices surged 5.3% to reach a four-week peak of $2,393.80, while palladium appreciated 1.5% to $1,810.60.

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