XRP Is Sitting on the Most Important Level It Has Seen in Weeks

XRP has been in freefall since February 25th, when it peaked near $1.48 and then reversed sharply over the following 48 hours.

As of this afternoon, it’s trading at $1.3522, down 4.3% for the day and pressing directly against a support zone that on-chain data suggests is holding an enormous concentration of investor cost basis.

The timing of that drop landing precisely here is not random.

What the On-Chain Data Reveals

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez published a URPD analysis, Unspent Realized Price Distribution, sourced from Glassnode, mapping where XRP holders actually acquired their coins across the current price range. The chart tells a clear story.

The single largest cluster of investor cost basis sits at $1.38. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of XRP was accumulated at that level, making it the most densely populated support zone on the entire distribution chart. The $1.42 area shows another notable concentration, though lighter than the $1.38 cluster beneath it.

According to his analysis, $1.38 is the key support level for XRP, and a decisive break below it puts $1.06 and $0.80 squarely on the radar. Those aren’t arbitrary targets. Both levels show significant cost basis clusters on the URPD chart, meaning they represent the next natural floors where buyer demand has historically been concentrated.

The distance between where XRP trades now and where it would go if $1.38 fails is not small. $1.06 represents a further 22% decline from the current price. $0.80 would represent nearly 41% from here.

The Price Chart Context

Looking at the 2-hour chart from February 14 onward, XRP’s trajectory has been one of the more dramatic in the market this month. Price spiked to $1.66 on February 15, the high of the entire visible range, before beginning a sustained decline that carried it all the way down to $1.30 by February 23rd.

That February 23 low came with the heaviest sell volume on the chart. The recovery that followed was sharp, XRP climbed from $1.30 back to $1.48 by February 25, but the move ran out of energy quickly and reversed without ever threatening the $1.50 area that had previously acted as support during the mid-February decline.

The current drop back toward $1.35 is therefore not a fresh breakdown. It is a retest of territory that has already been contested once this month. Whether buyers show up with the same conviction they did on February 23 is the question the chart is now asking.

The $1.38 Line

The confluence between the on-chain URPD data and the price chart is what makes this level particularly significant. On-chain cost basis clusters tend to act as support because holders who bought at those prices are reluctant to sell below their entry, their presence creates a natural demand floor. When price approaches those clusters, buying interest typically emerges.

The $1.38 level sits just below current price. XRP has already dipped beneath it briefly during today’s session before recovering marginally to $1.3522. Whether that constitutes a test or a breach depends on how the next few candles develop, a single wick below a level is categorically different from a sustained close beneath it.

What the URPD data makes clear is that there is no comparable support cluster between $1.38 and $1.06. If $1.38 gives way convincingly, the next area where meaningful buyer demand appears on-chain is roughly 22% lower. That gap is what makes the current level worth watching so closely.

What Needs to Happen

For the support thesis to hold, XRP needs to defend $1.38 on a closing basis and begin building back toward the $1.42–$1.48 range over the next several sessions. Reclaiming $1.50 would shift the short-term picture meaningfully, though the broader trend since the February 15 peak remains downward until proven otherwise.

A daily close below $1.35, particularly on volume comparable to the February 23 flush, would be a credible signal that the support cluster is not holding, and that the $1.06 target Ali Charts identified deserves serious attention.

The level is here. The decision gets made soon.

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