TON Technical Analysis Feb 28

TON’s market structure currently shows LH/LL (Lower Highs/Lower Lows) under the dominance of a downtrend; while stuck at the $1.30 level, breaking the $1.3019 resistance is a critical BOS level for trend change.

Market Structure Overview

TON’s current market structure is characterized by an LH/LL formation reflecting short- and medium-term downtrend. The price is moving in a narrow range around $1.30 ($1.28-$1.32), and its position below EMA20 ($1.36) strengthens the short-term bearish structure. Supertrend signal is bearish and RSI at 38.41 is approaching the oversold region, but MACD shows negative histogram with momentum in the downside direction. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 9 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, 2S/3R on 1W. These levels define structural integrity, and any breakout (BOS – Break of Structure) will clarify the trend direction. The overall outlook favors downtrend continuation, but BTC correlation and potential CHoCH (Change of Character) signals require attention. The market has seen a slight recovery of +0.39% in the last 24 hours, but structural resistances remain dominant.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL (Higher Highs/Higher Lows) structure is required. In the current structure, there is holding above the last swing low at $1.2980 (score: 62/100), but no new higher low has formed. Potential bullish continuation target is $1.6345 (score:31), but this requires breaking the $1.3019 swing high (BOS) and crossing EMA20. RSI turning up from 38 could signal a momentum shift, but bullish signals remain weak without breaking the current LH/LL. In the short term, a close above $1.32 range could test HL structure.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with LH/LL: As long as it stays below the last swing high at $1.3019 (score:79/100), lower highs continue. If the previous swing low at $1.2358 (score:62/100) breaks, bearish BOS is triggered, bringing the $0.8993 target (score:22) into play. MACD is bearish and price is below EMA20; if $1.2980 support breaks, LL structure solidifies. On 1W timeframe, 3 resistances support the downtrend. Risk: Sudden BTC dump accelerating the downside.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

Structure breakout levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: Daily close above $1.3019 (last swing high) breaks LH/LL and signals transition to HH/HL; next target $1.4395 (score:61/100). Bearish BOS: Close below $1.2980 swing low confirms downtrend and opens path to $1.2358. In MTF, 1D resistances ($1.3019, $1.4395) are critical for bullish breakout; 3D/1W supports (around $1.2358) strengthen bearish scenario. Without BOS, range continues; volume increase should be monitored for CHoCH. These levels apply to TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis as well.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Last swing high $1.3019 (score:79/100) is short-term resistance and LH confirmation; breaking it carries trend reversal potential. Upper level $1.4395 (score:61/100) is medium-term target and 1W resistance. These points are pivots where price was rejected; volume breakout triggers BOS. Importance: Staying below $1.3019 strengthens sellers and sustains LH/LL.

Recent Swing Lows

Last swing low $1.2980 (score:62/100) is immediate support and LL test level; breaking it increases bearish momentum. Lower level $1.2358 (score:62/100) is strong MTF support and potential bottom. These lows are buyers’ defense line; holding creates opportunity for HL formation. Importance of swing lows is critical in defining structural base – breakout delays reversal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $65,821 in downtrend (24h -1.83%), Supertrend bearish and dominance increase risky for altcoins. TON is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC $64,333 support breaks, TON $1.2980 test accelerates. If BTC resistances $65,960/$68,166 are surpassed, TON bullish BOS chance increases (above $1.3019). BTC key supports $62,512/$60,000 should be monitored – dump scenario could trigger TON bearish breakdown. Altcoin caution: BTC trend dominates TON structure.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

TON’s structural outlook is bearish dominated by LH/LL; squeeze in $1.30 range signals pre-volatility silence. Watch for $1.2980 breakout for downtrend continuation, $1.3019 BOS required for bullish. MTF levels (9 strong points) limit the range; CHoCH signal must be confirmed with volume. Lack of news highlights technical structure. Outlook: Bearish bias, reversal tied to $1.4395. Follow spot/futures links when trading.