The Crypto Market Has One Catalyst Left to Price In and It Arrives Sunday

With two days remaining until the March 1st Clarity Act deadline, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has identified a shift in crypto market sentiment, away from tariffs and the Jane Street lawsuit, and toward legislation as the dominant catalyst heading into March.

Santiment’s social volume comparison across three distinct themes, Jane Street, the Clarity Act, and tariffs, tells a clear story about how market attention has rotated over the past two weeks.

The tariff spike came first. Around February 19th, social volume for tariff discussions exploded after reports that Trump defied the Supreme Court to implement 15% global tariffs. Bitcoin dropped.

The crowd reacted. Then, as it tends to do, the market absorbed the news and moved on. Tariff social volume has declined steadily since, and Santiment notes that while the crowd still views tariffs negatively, opinions on how much they actually matter for crypto have become genuinely divided nearly a year after they first appeared.

Jane Street came next. The lawsuit, framing the firm as a suppressor of crypto prices, went viral around February 23rd and was widely credited as the primary driver of Wednesday’s crypto pump. The crowd read it as justice, and prices responded. That social volume has also peaked and is now tapering.

Which leaves the Clarity Act sitting quietly in the data, social volume still relatively low, a deadline two days out.

Why the Clarity Act Reading Is Binary

Santiment’s framing here is worth taking seriously. The crowd views passage of the Clarity Act as strongly positive for crypto, regulatory clarity around digital assets has been one of the most consistently cited catalysts for institutional adoption. If the March 1st deadline passes constructively, the sentiment response could be meaningful.

The downside scenario is equally sharp. Any sign the legislation faces setbacks, procedural delays, amended provisions, signals it won’t pass, and the same crowd that priced in optimism starts pricing in uncertainty. Santiment flagged the potential for “extreme FUD” in that scenario. That’s not hyperbole given how binary regulatory outcomes tend to land in crypto markets.

What to Watch Going Into the Weekend

The quietness around Clarity Act discussions today is either calm before resolution or calm before disappointment. Social volume data suggests the market hasn’t fully priced either outcome yet, which means Sunday’s deadline carries more weight than current price action implies.

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