Polymarket U.S.–Iran Strike Bets Fuel Insider Trading Speculation as Crypto Traders Net $1.2M

Following the U.S.–Iran strike today, there have been speculations about insider trading bets that may have occurred on the prediction market Polymarket. This came as six crypto traders notably made profits of just over $1 million betting that the U.S. would strike Iran today. 

U.S.-Iran Strike Bets Lead to Insider Trading Speculations

Some crypto traders on Polymarket had placed bets on a possible U.S.–Iran strike. Multiple newly created wallets placed large “YES” bets on whether the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. Notably, these wallets received funding within 24 hours of placing trades.

As per data compiled by Bubblemaps on the Polymarket bets, six suspected insiders generated $1.2 million in profits from the U.S.–Iran strike outcome. Most wallets targeted the February 28 market and bought shares hours before military action began. The pattern showed precise timing tied to Operation Epic Fury or Operation Shield of Judah.

One three-day-old wallet turned a $60,000 bet at 10.8 cents into between $493,000 and $560,000. That trade reflected an 821% return on investment within days. The scale and timing intensified speculation about insider knowledge.

The tension followed a joint U.S. and Israeli military operation on Saturday. President Donald Trump described the action as a large-scale effort to destroy Iran’s military capabilities. He said the objective was to eliminate the threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon.

Trump stated the U.S. would destroy Iran’s missiles and neutralize its navy. He also pledged to prevent proxy groups from attacking American forces and destabilizing the region. “We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Traders See Gains and Others Suffer Losses

However, not all traders benefited from the outcome. According to Lookonchain data, a user named anoin123 had built over $2 million in profit over two months. He consistently bet that the U.S. and Israel would not strike Iran.

When the U.S.–Iran strike happened, his position reversed sharply. He lost $6.5 million in one day, shifting from profits to over $4.5 million in losses. The abrupt move highlighted the risks tied to geopolitical markets.

Meanwhile, a new wallet named Roeyha2026 appeared 11 hours before placing a $50,000 bet. The trader predicted a U.S. strike on Iran by March 1, 2026. That position now shows a $96,800 profit.

Another trader, Vivaldi007, joined Polymarket on February 8 and repeatedly bet on an attack. He placed wagers across multiple possible dates and absorbed several losses. After Israel launched its strike, the trade turned profitable and now shows a total gain of $385,000.

Meanwhile, Polymarket odds show changing ceasefire expectations on the U.S.–Iran strike. Odds for a ceasefire by March 2 are at 8%. March 6 odds are at 22%, down by 14%, while March 15 fell to 41%, down by 9%. March 31 rose to 62%, up by 10%, and April 30 reached 81%, up by 3%.

Source: Polymarket

The Bitcoin price and the crypto market haven’t shown a massive drop. Bitcoin fell by 1.90% over 24 hours to trade at $64,950. However, there have been long liquidations and extreme fear.