Polymarket contracts price less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign today, as traders position into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by multiple outlets citing a White House advisory.
The Oval Office announced the planned appearance, though the topic was not disclosed. According to his schedule, Trump spent Labor Day golfing with no public appearances, and his day ended at 5:39 P.M. ET.
Trump schedule (Source: White House)Trading around Trump’s tenure and health has drawn sizable volume. As of early afternoon on Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” market on Polymarket showed <1% odds with roughly $1 million traded, based on live market boards shared with CryptoSlate.
Broader timeframes price low single-digit probabilities: the year-end contract “Will Trump resign in 2025?” traded near 6%, while “Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?” sat near 7%.
Amid a near-record low approval rate of 44% and a -7.6% net approval, a separate contract resolves on Trump’s polling floor, “How low will Trump’s approval rating go in 2025?,” priced a 40% approval or lower outcome at about 19%, with resolution tied to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin aggregator.
Trump approval rating (Source: Nate Silver)Market rules frame why odds cluster at the low end.
The resignation market pays out on an announcement alone by Dec. 31, 2025, irrespective of the effective date, per Polymarket’s rule set for the 2025 resignation contract.
Removal via the 25th requires a successful Section 4 process, meaning a Cabinet determination sustained by two-thirds of both chambers, per the 25th Amendment market. The approval market resolves to the green trend line published by Silver Bulletin.
Trading flurry follows online speculation about Trump’s health.
The White House disclosed on July 17 that the president was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency after leg swelling, with testing ruling out deep-vein thrombosis and cardiac issues, per an official physician memorandum posted by The White House.
Viral claims that Trump has “six to eight months to live” have been surfacing online based on “internet doctors’” assessment of the bruises on his hands. However, on Monday, Trump was reportedly photographed golfing near Washington, D.C., which added a fresh data point against “missing from public view” narratives, as People reported from the press pool.
In odd timing (for those indulging in conspiracy theory), VP J.D. Vance recently asserted that he is ready to be President should anything happen to Trump. Some have also claimed the images of Trump from this weekend are either a lookalike, fake, old, or show the president in very frail shape.
By 2 P.M. today, much of the social media weekend Zeitgeist will be solved, and millions will be paid out to those betting on the outcome via crypto’s always-present Polymarket prediction markets.
Rumor-driven markets can move fast, then mean-revert when new reporting lands. Today’s setup centers on the Oval Office announcement window and whether it alters the information environment that underpins these contracts.
Until that catalyst arrives, Polymarket’s same-day resignation line remains priced as a tail event, and the year-end resignation and removal contracts trade in the single digits.
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Source: https://cryptoslate.com/millions-bet-president-donald-trump-is-not-dead-as-polymarket-resignation-odds-stay-under-1/
