The Altcoin Season Index Is Rising: Here Is What the Data Actually Shows

Analyst Joao Wedson has highlighted that the Altcoin Season Index is continuing to rise despite broad market weakness, with 24 out of 55 tracked altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the last 60 days, and the Alphractal chart showing the index climbing toward the altcoin season threshold from a deep Bitcoin season trough that characterized most of late 2025.

What the Chart Is Showing

The Altcoin Season Index vs. Bitcoin chart from Alphractal tracks what percentage of the top 55 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over a rolling 60-day period. The pink shaded zone at the top represents altcoin season, defined as when 75% or more of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. The green shaded zone at the bottom represents Bitcoin season, when 25% or fewer are outperforming.

The chart covering 2023 through March 2026 shows the index has oscillated between these two zones multiple times. The most recent sustained period in altcoin season territory came during the mid-2025 rally, when the index pushed toward and above 80% alongside Bitcoin’s climb to near $120,000. That peak was followed by a sharp reversal, and the index dropped back through the middle range and toward Bitcoin season territory as price declined through late 2025 and into 2026.

The current reading shows the blue line climbing from the lower range toward approximately 44%, sitting in the neutral zone between Bitcoin and altcoin season, with 24 of 55 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over the last 60 days. The direction is upward. Whether it reaches and sustains altcoin season territory is the open question the chart poses.

The Cycle Asymmetry Argument

Wedson’s core analytical point challenges a common assumption about how altcoin and Bitcoin market cycles relate to each other. The conventional narrative treats altcoins as higher-beta Bitcoin, meaning they fall harder and recover later, following Bitcoin’s lead throughout the full cycle. The historical data, in Wedson’s reading, tells a more nuanced story.

Altcoin bear markets have historically lasted between 7 and 11 months. Bitcoin bear markets typically last closer to 12 months. That shorter altcoin cycle duration means that during the middle phase of Bitcoin’s bear market, a cohort of altcoins has often already completed their bear phase and are beginning to recover while Bitcoin is still under pressure.

The implication for the current environment is specific. If Bitcoin’s bear phase is ongoing and running on its typical 12-month timeline, and altcoin bear phases average 7 to 11 months, then a portion of the altcoin universe may be closer to cycle completion than Bitcoin is, even if Bitcoin’s absolute price decline looks less severe.

The second element of the argument is the floor dynamic. Many altcoins have already experienced drawdowns of 80% to 90% or more from their cycle highs. Assets that have already fallen that far have proportionally less room to make new lows in percentage terms even if Bitcoin does. Two thirds of altcoins potentially not setting new lows if Bitcoin drops further is not optimism. It is arithmetic applied to assets that are already deeply discounted.

What the Index Rising Actually Means

The Altcoin Season Index rising while the broader market remains in extreme fear territory is, on the surface, a contradiction. Fear is at its highest level across any recorded Bitcoin crash. Yet more altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin on a rolling 60-day basis than were doing so a month ago.

The resolution is that the index measures relative performance, not absolute performance. Altcoins outperforming Bitcoin in a falling market means they are falling less than Bitcoin, not that they are going up. The index rising toward 44% during a period of broad weakness reflects altcoin prices holding their ground better than Bitcoin rather than staging independent recoveries.

Whether that relative resilience converts into absolute outperformance depends on conditions the index alone cannot predict. What it confirms is that the dynamic Wedson describes, altcoins decoupling from Bitcoin’s cycle timeline during the middle phase of a Bitcoin bear market, is currently visible in the data.

The Current Reading in Context

At 24 out of 55 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over 60 days, the index sits just below the midpoint between Bitcoin season and altcoin season. The direction of travel from the recent trough is upward. The chart’s history shows the index can move from the neutral zone into altcoin season territory rapidly when conditions support it, and can reverse just as quickly.

The index does not define timing. It measures what is already happening across the altcoin market relative to Bitcoin, and right now more of that market is holding up better than Bitcoin than was the case a month ago.

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