Crypto Market Structure Bill Approval by Mid-Year Could Spark Second-Half Rally, JPMorgan Says

TLDR:

• JPMorgan analysts say the CLARITY Act could be approved by mid-year and lift crypto markets in H2 2026.
• The bill would classify tokens under CFTC or SEC oversight, easing compliance for assets like XRP and Solana.
• New crypto projects could raise up to $75 million annually without full SEC registration under a grace period rule.
• JPMorgan warns the bill may shift institutional focus from stablecoins toward tokenized deposits if enacted into law.
  

The crypto market structure bill may receive U.S. approval by mid-year, according to JPMorgan analysts. Their report suggests the legislation could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets later in 2026.

Despite weak sentiment across digital assets, analysts remain constructive on the sector’s outlook for the year ahead.

Crypto Market Structure Bill: What the Legislation Covers

The proposed legislation, widely known as the CLARITY Act, aims to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.

The House has already advanced the bill, while Senate discussions remain ongoing. Two key sticking points continue to slow progress on the final version.

One concern involves stablecoin yield. Crypto firms want to reward users who hold stablecoins, but banks warn this could draw deposits away from traditional institutions.

The other issue centers on conflict-of-interest rules, with Democrats pushing to bar senior government officials and their families from certain crypto financial activities.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated, “While sentiment remains negative in crypto markets, we continue to believe that a potential approval of the market structure legislation most likely by mid year could serve as a positive catalyst for crypto markets into the second half of the year.” The team remains broadly constructive on crypto for 2026 despite current headwinds.

The White House has held multiple closed-door meetings between crypto firms and banking groups. A compromise remains possible, though no final agreement has been reached yet.

Eight Catalysts That Could Follow a Crypto Bill Passage

JPMorgan outlined eight potential positive outcomes if the bill becomes law. The analysts wrote that passage would fundamentally reshape the digital asset space, stating: “If passed it will reshape market structure by providing regulatory clarity, ending ‘regulation by enforcement,’ promoting tokenization, and facilitating greater institutional participation.”

The legislation would classify tokens under either CFTC or SEC oversight, easing compliance for major digital assets. A grandfather clause could place tokens like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin under the lighter CFTC framework.

New projects would receive a grace period allowing up to $75 million in annual fundraising without full SEC registration.

This could support venture activity within U.S. borders rather than pushing it offshore. A pathway also exists for tokens to transition from securities to commodity status once sufficiently decentralized.

Clearer custody rules could allow institutions like BNY Mellon and State Street to directly hold digital assets. On stablecoins, the analysts noted that enacted provisions “could weigh on U.S. stablecoins by recasting them more as digital cash instruments rather than investment deposits,” potentially shifting attention toward tokenized deposits or offshore alternatives like Ethena’s USDe.

Small-transaction tax exemptions for everyday crypto payments are also included in the proposal. Miners, validators, and developers would be exempt from broker reporting requirements during development phases.

JPMorgan’s long-term bitcoin price target remains at $266,000, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold.

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