Crypto rally in H2 2026? JPMorgan points to Clarity Act, analyst says ‘buy the rumor’ starts now

JPMorgan analysts say a long-anticipated U.S. crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-2026 and act as a major positive catalyst for digital asset markets in the second half of the year.

The report highlights that despite subdued sentiment and weak trading volumes across the sector, regulatory clarity from the proposed legislation, commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, could help unlock growth and investment later in 2026.

JPMorgan says Clarity Act may spark second-half crypto upswing

According to the note, the Clarity Act represents not a marginal tweak but a “structural transformation” of the regulatory environment. JPMorgan outlined three key impacts.

First, the elimination of “regulation by enforcement” as the default approach to oversight. The bill would clearly divide jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC, reducing the legal ambiguity that has deterred institutional investors worried about retroactive token reclassification and undefined liability.

Second, clearer rules could convert institutional crypto interest from exploratory allocations into high-conviction positions. The note argues pension funds and asset managers currently testing exposure may scale significantly once regulatory risks are reduced.

Third, JPMorgan expects an acceleration of real-world asset tokenization, with Wall Street firms moving projects from pilot stages to production scale under a defined legal framework.

However, another analyst strongly disputed JPMorgan’s timeline, arguing that the market reaction would not wait until the second half of 2026. The critic contended that if the Clarity Act is expected to become law by July, the rally would likely begin well in advance, following a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern.

In that view, crypto prices could start climbing months before the bill is signed, potentially as much as 150 days ahead of the event, followed by a pullback around the official signing, and then a renewed upward move afterwards.