Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Stock: What to Expect From Earnings on Wednesday

TLDR

• Rigetti Computing reports Q4 FY2025 results after market close on March 4, 2026.
• Analysts expect a loss of $0.03 per share on revenue of $2.33 million.
• RGTI stock is down more than 21% year-to-date but rose 9.4% last week.
• IonQ’s strong Q4 beat lifted sentiment across the quantum computing sector, including RGTI.
• The key metric to watch is Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs), which signal future revenue.

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings after the bell on Wednesday, March 4. The report lands at a tricky moment — RGTI stock is down more than 21% year-to-date, but last week offered a small reprieve.

Rigetti Computing, Inc., RGTI

The stock gained 9.4% over the week ending March 1, even as the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 1%. That’s a notable turnaround, and the reason wasn’t anything Rigetti did directly.

IonQ reported its Q4 results on February 25, posting a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 per share on revenue of $61.89 million. Analysts had expected a loss of $0.23 per share on revenue of just $40.38 million. The beat was large enough to move the whole sector.

IonQ also guided for full-year 2026 revenue of $225 million to $245 million, well above Wall Street’s estimate of $192.6 million. That kind of upside guidance tends to lift boats across an industry, and Rigetti was one of them.

Now it’s Rigetti’s turn to perform.

The Street is forecasting a loss of $0.03 per share for Q4, compared to a loss of $0.08 per share in the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to come in at $2.33 million, up about 2.6% year-over-year. Those are modest numbers, but the direction matters here.

RPOs: The Number That Really Matters

For a pre-profit company like Rigetti, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) carry more weight than a single quarter’s revenue. RPOs represent the value of contracted work that hasn’t yet been completed — essentially a forward-looking indicator of how much business the company has locked in.

Rigetti’s RPOs saw a dip in early 2025 but have since recovered. Investors will be watching closely to see whether that recovery continues or stalls.

RPOs cover contracts for quantum processing units, cloud access, and related services. For a company still burning heavily on R&D, this metric tells you whether customers are making real, long-term commitments.

Hardware Delays in Focus

One thing that has been on investors’ minds is hardware. Rigetti delayed the launch of its 108-qubit Cepheus-1-108Q system to the end of Q1 FY2026.

The company also committed to delivering a 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by end of 2025. Whether that promise was kept — or what the status of it is — will likely come up on the earnings call.

Analyst sentiment heading into the report is cautiously positive. On TipRanks, RGTI carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on five Buy ratings and two Hold ratings. The average price target sits at $38.75, which implies over 120% upside from current levels around $17.52.

The stock’s 52-week range runs from $6.86 to $58.15, which puts today’s price roughly in the middle of that range. A lot of ground has been given back since the highs.

Rigetti’s Q4 earnings call is scheduled for after market close on March 4, 2026.

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