Bitcoin price outlook: Are short-term holders staying calm amid US-Iran tensions?

Bitcoin price holds near $68,000 as short-term holders show restraint despite US-Iran war tensions.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $68,308 at press time, up 1.3% over the past 24 hours. The asset is positioned near the top of its seven-day range between $62,905 and $69,340, recovering from a sharp dip earlier in the week.

The larger trend, however, is still corrective. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin has dropped about 45% from that peak. So far in 2026, it is down roughly 20%, reflecting continued pressure following last year’s rally.

Derivatives activity has increased over the past day. CoinGlass data shows trading volume rising 8.7% to $72.3 billion, while open interest has edged up 1.6% to $44.9 billion. When open interest climbs alongside price, it often suggests that new positions are being opened rather than closed.

Short-term holders are not rushing to sell

A March 1 analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor examined Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges metric. This indicator tracks whether recent buyers are sending coins to exchanges at a profit or a loss. Short-term holders tend to react quickly to fear-driven events and can amplify volatility.

According to the report, on Feb. 5–6, during a sharp market drop, roughly 89,000 BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. That episode marked a clear capitulation from newer market participants. Since then, those loss-driven inflows have steadily declined.

The recent geopolitical escalation involving U.S. and Iran provided another stress test. Bitcoin briefly dipped toward the $63,000–$64,000 area, yet exchange inflows from short-term holders did not spike.

There was no surge in panic selling or aggressive profit-taking from this typically reactive group.

That shift is notable. Markets often stabilize once forced sellers have exited. The current data suggests much of the recent liquidation pressure may already have played out.

Selling from recent buyers has slowed, and weak hands seem to be less active. Whether or not this calm continues will be crucial going forward. 

Seller fatigue would be evident if exchange inflows from short-term holders continued to be low. A sharp increase in realized losses would indicate a resurgence of stress.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

Since January, Bitcoin has continued to move within a downward structure marked by lower highs and lower lows. The recent rebound comes after a sharp decline, and the price is currently consolidating rather than showing a strong trend in either direction. 

Bollinger Bands show that before rising, Bitcoin touched the lower band around $64,400. At $67,300, it currently trades near the middle band. The upper band, near $70,100, marks immediate resistance.

A rejection in the $70,000–$71,000 zone would keep pressure on the upside, while a strong daily close above that area could shift short-term momentum.

The relative strength index has climbed from oversold levels in the low 20s to around 47. Momentum is improving, though it has not crossed above 50, a level often associated with stronger buyer control.

The current structure resembles a sharp impulse lower followed by sideways compression, which can develop into a bear flag. If that pattern resolves downward, a return to the low $60,000s becomes plausible.

Support sits between $64,000 and $65,000. If that area fails, the next psychological level near $60,000 could come into focus.