Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Morgan Stanley Reinstates as Top Semiconductor Pick Over Micron

TLDR

• Analysts hold a StrongBuy consensus on NVDA with a 12-month average price target of $271.11
• Morgan Stanley reinstated Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick, with a $260 price target and Overweight rating
• UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating on March 2 with a $245 price target
• Nvidia posted 65% revenue growth over the past 12 months, reaching $216 billion, with a 60.4% operating margin
• The company’s GTC conference runs March 16–19, where investors expect updates on product timelines and AI demand

Nvidia has had a rough week on paper — down 5.4% over the past seven days — but Wall Street isn’t blinking.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

The stock closed at $182.48, still up 60% over the past year. Analysts remain firmly bullish, pointing to strong fundamentals and a packed pipeline of AI-driven demand.

Trefis has set a price target of $236, citing Nvidia’s financial health and operating performance. The firm rates the stock as “Attractive but Volatile,” flagging its very high valuation as the main caveat.

On the revenue side, Nvidia grew its top line 65% over the past 12 months, from $130 billion to $216 billion. Quarterly revenues hit $68 billion in the most recent quarter, up 73.2% year-over-year.

The company’s three-year average revenue growth rate sits at 101.8%, one of the strongest in the market.

Profitability is equally striking. Operating income for the last 12 months came in at $130 billion, representing a 60.4% operating margin. Net income reached roughly $120 billion, good for a 55.6% net margin.

Operating cash flow was nearly $103 billion, with a cash flow margin of 47.6%. Nvidia holds $63 billion in cash against $11 billion in debt — a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.3%.

Analyst Backing

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated his Buy rating on March 2 with a $245 price target. His confidence follows a meeting with Nvidia CFO Colette Kress during a semiconductor industry tour.

Key discussion points included networking growth and long-term margin outlook. Nvidia’s management indicated hyperscale customers are already planning compute buildouts through 2027.

Arcuri’s EPS estimates stand at $12.50 for 2027 and $15.00 for 2028. He believes cloud and internet players have the balance sheets to keep investing ahead of revenue.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore also maintained his Overweight rating, setting a price target of $260. He reinstated Nvidia as the firm’s top semiconductor pick, bumping Micron from the top spot.

Moore acknowledged debate around whether memory stocks offer better upside than AI processors, but said he sees comparable strength in both. He added that potential easing of supply constraints in DRAM and storage could further benefit Nvidia.

GTC Conference Ahead

All eyes are now on Nvidia’s GTC conference, scheduled for March 16–19.

Moore said industry checks indicate major customers plan to increase Nvidia-related spending in 2026. Investors are looking to GTC for product timeline updates and clarity on demand trends across AI hardware.

The average 12-month price target across Wall Street analysts sits at $271.11, implying roughly 48% upside from current levels.

Nvidia’s gross margin target remains around 75%, a level management views as sustainable given product performance advantages and total cost of ownership benefits for customers.

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