Republican candidates' pitch crumbles as Trump's policies take effect

Intelligencer political columnist Ed Kilgore said a central pillar of President Donald Trump’s affordability agenda involved low gasoline prices. Trump loved to overstate the falling cost of gasoline every chance he got upon returning to the White House. He often claimed, without evidence, that the price of gas had dropped below $2.

He can probably kiss all that goodbye now, said Kilgore, and so can Republicans in November.

“To the extent Trump had an actual affordability agenda (other than calling concerns about living costs “a hoax”), a central pillar was keeping energy prices low by demolishing any obstacles to maximum exploitation of fossil-fuel resources,” Kilgore said. “Aside from the beneficial effect this might have on prices for other goods and services influenced by energy costs, the ‘drill baby drill’ mentality was designed to reduce gasoline pump prices, one of the most visible inflation indicators from the perspective of regular folks.”

But thanks to Trump’s self-made disruption of oil in the Middle East with his attack on Iran, the “United States has produced an energy-price crisis for itself and for the whole world.”

“While other countries face the most dire immediate economic consequences from a war that Trump is now projecting to last a month or more … it’s about to affect Americans too,” said Kilgore, citing that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, a type of oil primarily produced in the U.S., jumped 6.2 percent on Monday to $71 per barrel.

Unfortunately, the price of even U.S. oil rises with demand — and demand inevitably increases when oil transportation is disrupted on the other side of the planet.

“Yes, MAGA true believers are buying Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear-weapon and missile programs posed an immediate threat to the United States, but other Americans aren’t at the moment,” said Kilgore. “So his decision go in this radical direction sure looks like a conscious choice to subordinate the daily concerns of his own people to a globalist agenda and an alliance with Israel that already troubles a majority of Americans.”

That apprehension is going to hit Trump’s party hard in November, if voters are still seeing high pries at the pump, said Kilgore.

“Shortly before the 2024 presidential election, I was filling up my car with gas in California, and someone had placed on the pump a little decal of Trump pointing at the per-gallon prices and saying, Biden did this!” said Kilgore. “If pump prices continue to go up in 2026, it will be even easier to show that Trump did this! And the price will be paid not just by consumers but by Republican candidates whose affordability arguments have been blown up by the explosions in Iran.”

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