Death Cross Appears on Bitcoin Charts as Historical Pattern Shows 50% Crash Risk ⋆ ZyCrypto

Bitcoin (BTC) showed limited price movement on Wednesday before slipping overnight into Friday amid a surge in selling pressure.

Notably, by early February 28, BTC had declined further to around $63,000–$64,000, driven by heavy selling and liquidations following military strikes involving Israel and Iran. Over the past 2 weeks, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen nearly 7%, reflecting heightened market uncertainty.

Notably, amid this drop, the market remains cautious, with some analysts warning that prices could fall further.

In a note on X, popular analyst Ali Charts noted that after Bitcoin peaked in December 2017, the cryptocurrency underwent a sharp correction of roughly 67%.

“The 3-day death cross appeared in November 2018,” he said. 

Following that, BTC experienced another steep 50% drop, marking what many consider the final capitulation phase of that bear market.

According to the pundit, the death cross, which occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average, has historically signaled sustained downside pressure in Bitcoin’s cyclical trends and occurred this week.

Furthermore, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode observed that profit-taking activity at high price levels could suppress upward momentum. In a tweet on Wednesday, the firm noted that when the smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5 million per hour, Bitcoin’s price stalled at around $69,400.

“Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime,” he explained. 

This suggests that even relatively modest selling can significantly affect price recovery in current market conditions, underscoring the challenges of maintaining upward momentum at critical resistance levels.

Elsewhere, according to analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin’s bearish trend may persist through 2026. Woo warned that depleted liquidity in spot and futures markets could keep BTC near $45,000, with severe crises potentially pushing support to $30,000 and $10,000 as a last line of defense. CryptoQuant agrees, forecasting the cycle bottom between September and December 2026, with bullish momentum unlikely until early 2027.

However, despite these warnings, some analysts remain more optimistic. Analyst The Great Mattsby pointed to Fibonacci retracement levels as evidence that Bitcoin is not entering a macro bear market.

His analysis noted that the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2017 high and low, which coincided with Bitcoin’s market top in 2021 at approximately $62,000, has recently been revisited as support.

“This backtest provides evidence that long-term bullish structures remain intact,” he argued. 

Such technical levels are often used by traders to identify potential floors and ceilings for price action, indicating that while short-term volatility may be high, the broader trend could still be constructive.

At press time, BTC was trading at $72,611, up 1.30% over the past 24 hours.