Bitcoin’s post-Iran strike rally reignites safe-haven debate

The global crypto market printed green following geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East. However, this rally managed to revive a long-running debate over a true safe-haven asset. Eric Balchunas noted that Bitcoin has climbed about 12% since the Iran strike, while gold prices have moved lower over the same period.

Investors’ sentiment for digital assets looked to be improving while other asset markets saw red indexes. The Fear and Greed index shows that the market mawkishness returned to the “Fear” category after spending days under “Extreme Fear”.

Bitcoin ETF inflows near erasing YTD deficit

Balchunas highlighted that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded another strong day of inflows, with “another half-billion day.” This comes in as 10 of the 11 Bitcoin ETFs attracted investor demand. The cumulative inflow for March 4 stood at $461.77 million. The surge has nearly erased the sector’s year-to-date deficit in flows. The net inflow hovers around the $56 billion mark. 

The divergence between BTC and gold during a period of geopolitical uncertainty suggests a speculation that digital assets might be taking over gold’s traditional safe-haven role. However, Balchunas had cautioned against drawing conclusions based on short-term price movements.

He said he did not believe gold had failed as a safe-haven asset and even argued that judging long-term roles based on a narrow window of price action can be misleading. According to the Bloomberg ETFs expert, Bitcoin’s rise may have little to do with geopolitical tensions and more to do with shifting market dynamics. This included improved sentiment and the fading impact of certain large trading participants.

Profit-taking after Gold’s massive rally could also explain its recent dip. He added that some investors are potentially rotating capital toward Bitcoin in search of stronger returns. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin-gold comparison has dominated headlines, but broader capital flows suggest investors are moving across multiple asset classes.

Balchunas, in an X post, pointed out that fixed-income ETFs have already attracted roughly $100 billion in inflows during the first two months of the year. This has been seen as a record start that far exceeds the average pace seen over the past decade. He mentioned that products from Vanguard and other large issuers are among the main beneficiaries of those flows.

The Kobeissi Letter shows crypto funds recorded about $1 billion in inflows last week. This green index managed to break a five-week streak of withdrawals that totaled roughly $4 billion. Bitcoin led the rebound with $881 million in inflows. Ether bagged $117 million, its largest weekly inflow since mid-January. 

Solana ETFs have drawn the most consistent demand so far in 2026. They hit a cumulative inflow of around $971 million.

Bitcoin itself has eased slightly after touching a one-month high earlier in the week. BTC price briefly reached around $74,000 before slipping back to the $70,000 zone. It’s still down by almost 19% on a YTD basis. Ether price is up by around 4% over the last 7 days. ETH is trading at an average price of $2,073.

Investors rotate away from big tech

The Kobeissi Letter reported that investor positioning is shifting in traditional equity markets as well. The equal-weight S&P 500 ETF has attracted nearly $5.9 billion in inflows this month. This has been the largest since the fund’s inception. At the same time, funds tracking the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap technology stocks have seen outflows. This signals a rotation away from the biggest names in the sector.

That divergence has created a huge performance gap. The equal-weight benchmark is up roughly 5.5% year to date. On the other side, the mega-cap focused ETF has fallen about 7.1%.

Despite the debate around bitcoin’s safe-haven status, gold has hardly been out of favor in the broader market. The precious metal has risen for seven consecutive months and is hitting the longest rally on record. During that stretch, Gold prices climbed about 61%.

Gold is trading at an average price of $5,070 at the press time. It dipped by 1.5% over the last day. It is still up by 17.2% on a year-to-date basis, which is far better than BTC’s performance. Investor demand for gold remains strong as well. The world’s largest physical gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, added around $3.8 billion in inflows last week. It is one of the largest weekly totals ever recorded.

Retail investors are also showing a continued appetite for risk. Individual traders have been aggressively buying energy stocks. The purchases of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund jumped more than 400% in a matter of days. Technology names such as Nvidia and Palantir Technologies have also seen strong inflows.