Republicans from rural America warn key voter bases could sit out this election year

When Democratic strategists are asked about the challenges they face, one of the things that often comes up is the GOP's dominance of Rural America. Democrats in Texas, for example, perform well in major urban centers like Houston, Austin and El Paso, but the state's many rural counties give Republicans a huge advantage in statewide races. And in Pennsylvania, the GOP's domination of rural areas is a sharp contrast to Democrats' domination of Philadelphia.

Farmers, from Pennsylvania to Iowa, are a crucial part of President Donald Trump's base and help the GOP maintain its advantage among rural voters. But according to Politico reporters Daniel Desrochers and Grace Yarrow, frustrations among farmers —including Trump's trade policy — could hurt GOP voter turnout in the 2026 midterms.

"President Donald Trump promised a 'golden age' of American agriculture," the Politico journalists explain in an article published on March 6. "Farm-state Republicans are feeling pressure to make a down payment before the midterms. Over the past five months, the Trump Administration has rolled out trade agreements it says will give farmers access to new markets and reopened Chinese purchases of millions of pounds of soybeans after a trade war-induced, monthslong boycott. It also spearheaded an effort to get $12 billion in direct payments to farmers to recover some of their losses amid the president's trade war…. Republicans from Rural America are warning that one of their key voter bases could sit out this election year — a blow for a party already facing stiff political headwinds."

According to Desrochers and Yarrow, new data shows "farm bankruptcies soaring." And Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) is among the Republicans who is sounding the alarm about farmers' worries.

Moran told Politico, "The anxiety, the anxiousness, the angst, the timing is all something that is really weighing on producers."

Sen. Jim Justice (R-West Virginia) is speaking out as well and told Politico, "We have got to do more now. If Republicans are not worried about the midterms, then they're living in a cave."

Rural voters — whether farmers themselves or simply adjacent to the industry — have repeatedly turned out in droves to support Trump in the past.

Desrochers and Yarrow report that although "rural voters turned out in droves to support Trump in the past," former GOP consultant Brian Reisinger fears they will sit out this year's midterms.

Reisinger told Politico, "The question is not, 'Are they going to suddenly flip to Democrat?' The question is, 'Are they going to be as motivated and as moved by the direction of (Republicans') policy agenda now as they were in 2016 or in 2024?'"

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