Chevron (CVX) Stock Jumps 3% On Bank of America Upgrade as Oil Holds Above $90

TLDR

• Bank of America raised its CVX price target to $206 from $188, keeping a Buy rating on the back of elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions
• Chevron hit a one-year high of $191.44 on March 2, climbing more than 3% intraday
• The Hess Corporation acquisition has closed, adding a major stake in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana
• Insiders sold over 1 million CVX shares worth ~$187 million in the last 90 days
• Q4 EPS came in at $1.52, beating the $1.44 consensus estimate, with Permian output up 12% year-over-year

Chevron (CVX) got a lift this week after Bank of America raised its price target to $206 from $188, citing durable geopolitical risk premiums and underpriced affiliate cash flows. The bank kept its Buy rating in place.

Chevron Corporation, CVX

Analyst Jean Ann Salisbury argued that Wall Street has been underestimating both Chevron’s affiliate income and the staying power of elevated crude prices. Brent is trading above $90 a barrel, and Bank of America is now modeling a $100 floor through Q3 — its most bullish oil price forecast since 2022.

The stock reacted quickly. CVX hit a fresh one-year high of $191.44 on March 2, moving more than 3% intraday on the news. It last traded at $189.74 on volume of over 4.5 million.

The broader context matters here. Tensions in the Middle East — including Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure — have kept a risk premium baked into oil. That premium shows no sign of fading, and Chevron is well positioned to benefit.

Chevron also closed its acquisition of Hess Corporation, securing a meaningful stake in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana. That block could reach 1.3 million barrels per day by 2027, according to Bank of America’s projections. The deal also puts Chevron closer to parity with ExxonMobil’s Guyana footprint.

The company is simultaneously in exclusive talks tied to Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield and exploring production expansion in Venezuela. It’s a busy pipeline of upstream growth.

Growth Drivers Stacking Up

On the production side, Chevron’s Tengiz expansion in Kazakhstan is expected to add roughly 260,000 barrels per day in 2025, with first oil anticipated in Q2. Permian Basin output is on pace to hit one million barrels per day, up 12% year-over-year in Q4.

A CPChem cracker expansion is coming online in 2026, which should boost affiliate cash flows — one of the key areas Bank of America says the Street has been too cautious on.

Free cash flow could reach $16.50 per share in 2027 at $70 Brent, roughly double current levels even on conservative assumptions. At $90 oil, the free cash yield tops 11%.

Chevron raised its quarterly dividend to $1.78, annualizing at $7.12 and yielding around 3.7%. The company carries a $15 billion buyback program and has grown its dividend 6% annually. The payout ratio currently sits at 106.91%, which some investors will watch closely.

What’s Worth Watching

On the institutional side, Vanguard added nearly 28 million CVX shares in Q3, now holding over 183 million total. Norges Bank took a new $2.7 billion position in Q2. Institutional investors own 72.42% of the stock.

The flip side: insiders sold over 1 million shares worth around $187 million in the last 90 days. Vice Chairman Mark A. Nelson sold 139,600 shares on March 2 alone — a 92% reduction in his position.

Q4 earnings beat estimates, with EPS of $1.52 vs. the $1.44 consensus. Revenue came in at $45.79 billion, slightly below the $48.18 billion forecast, and was down 10.2% from the same quarter last year.

The FTC ruling on the Hess merger is expected around March 15. Chevron reports Q1 earnings on April 25. The company’s annual strategy update in June is expected to outline the capital return framework for H2 2026.

Wall Street consensus remains a Hold, with an average price target of $178.95 — well below Bank of America’s $206 call.

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