Duterte’s ICC case exposes political fault lines ahead of 2028 presidential polls

By Erika Mae P. Sinaking, Reporter

THE International Criminal Court’s (ICC) case against former Philippine President Rodrigo R. Duterte is shaping up to be a defining fault line for the 2028 presidential elections, analysts said, forcing a deeply polarized electorate to weigh demands for international justice against the political survival of a powerful dynasty.

David Michael M. San Juan, a professor at De La Salle University and convener of Professionals for a Progressive Economy, said the trial is crystallizing long-standing political divisions. “It will draw the line between the pro-Duterte bloc and the anti-Duterte groups,” Mr. San Juan told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.

As the proceedings advance, he added all 2028 presidential aspirants will be compelled to take a position, elevating human rights accountability as a central campaign issue.

“At this point, it is also becoming clear that the ICC trial will be among the very many issues in the minds of the public,” he added.

The confirmation of charges hearing in The Hague, which concluded on Feb. 27, underscored sharply opposing narratives surrounding the anti-drug campaign.

Prosecutors characterized the “war on drugs” as a systematic attack against the urban poor, linking alleged kill orders to a figure codenamed “Superman,” associated with the former president. Senior trial lawyer Julian Nicholls argued that the Duterte administration’s repeated use of “neutralize” was widely understood by police as an order to kill rather than a routine law enforcement directive.

Judges have begun deliberations and are expected to issue a written decision within 60 days after the hearing, which may confirm charges and commit the case to trial, dismiss charges lacking sufficient evidence, or adjourn to seek additional evidence or amended charges.

“We expect that Pre-Trial I will confirm the 3 charges,” Ephraim B. Cortez, president of the National Union of Peoples’ Lawyers, told BusinessWorld in a Viber message, noting the evidence presented in the recent pre-trial hearings was both systemic and methodical.

With “overwhelming” evidence, Mr. Cortez said the prosecutors proved that specific acts of murder and attempted murder were the “necessary consequences” of the Mr. Duterte’s policy first implemented in Davao City and later nationwide.

“It was proven that its geographical spread, as well as the pattern and the frequency of killings, indicate that these were widespread and systematic. The evidence also showed that Duterte was at the center of this structure. He was the one who conceived the plan, ensured its implementation, and controlled the entire operation. The implementation of this plan/policy resulted in the commission of the ‘in the ordinary course of events,’” he explained.

In his defense, Mr. Duterte’s lawyer, Nicholas Kaufman, argued the case was built on “pure, unadulterated and undiluted hearsay,” maintaining his client was a unique phenomenon who spoke from the heart to instill respect for the law. Mr. Kaufman said most deaths occurred during legitimate “nanlaban” incidents, where police say they acted in self-defense. “Rodrigo Duterte was and will always remain a unique phenomenon,” he told the court.

The legal battle has intensified scrutiny of the previous administration’s inner circle, as prosecutors identified eight alleged co-perpetrators, including Senator Ronald “Bato” M. dela Rosa who led the drug war as Mr. Duterte’s former police chief. The defense claims there is “absolutely no evidence” of a coordinated plan.

At the sidelines of an EDSA protest on Feb. 25, Purisima B. Dacumos, whose husband was killed in a police operation, expressed her hope that the ICC would provide the accountability that domestic courts failed to deliver. “We are happy because we trust our lawyers and believe they will truly fight for our case so that we can achieve justice. Even though Duterte’s supporters are bashing us, I hope the ICC will really prove that he committed human rights violations,” Ms. Dacumos said in Filipino.

SYMPATHY VOTE
In Manila, the political fallout from The Hague has already began shaping the 2028 presidential race, following Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s presidential bid announcement on Feb. 18. She earlier broke from her 2022 alliance with President Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr. calling their previous partnership a “mistake.”

“The timing of the announcement of Sara Duterte’s presidential run, which also comes ahead of new moves to impeach her, suggests that the Duterte camp is banking on continued popular support and resentment against Marcos to parlay Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest into a path to vindication,” said Tomas Buenaventura, senior research assistant at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, in an expert comment dated Feb. 20.

Ms. Duterte, who has emerged as a frontrunner for the 2028 presidential polls, has been a “dogged defender of her father’s legacy, Mr. Buenaventura said, adding the Dutertes will likely continue to face continued opposition over the war on drugs.

Mr. San Juan said that Ms. Duterte’s prospective presidential campaign might rely on “sympathy votes and hence retain the loyalty of the DDS (Diehard Duterte Supporters) bloc.”

In a recent analysis published by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada in March, Geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill, lecturer at De La Salle University, said the ICC trial could significantly reshape Philippine politics as this could give the vice-president a “narrative of sympathy.”

“If the impeachment process fails, the vice-president may be in the position to rally support for a 2028 presidential bid by leveraging a narrative of sympathy for her family as victims of political persecution,” Mr. Gill said in the article, titled “How Duterte’s International Criminal Court Trial Could Shape the Future of Philippine Politics.”

“If she succeeds in doing so and goes on to win the presidency, the result will likely be a significant shift back to appeasing China and relying less on like-minded Western partners in maritime security matters. Additionally, she may use the platform to seek vengeance on her family’s political opponents, similar to what her father did during his term,” he added.