Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Stock Rockets 17% After Oil Prices Surge and Earnings Beat

TLDR

• OXY stock jumped 16.9% in February, driven by rising oil prices and strong Q4 earnings
• WTI crude rose 2.8% in February to $67/barrel; in early March it surged another 10% to over $73
• Q4 EPS came in at $0.31, nearly double the analyst consensus estimate of $0.17
• Occidental raised its quarterly dividend from $0.24 to $0.26 per share, yielding ~1.9%
• Regal Partners Ltd took a new $6.62M stake in OXY; institutional investors own 88.7% of the stock

OXY surged nearly 17% in February as oil prices climbed and the company posted a blowout Q4 earnings report. The rally has continued into March, with the stock up another 4% in early March.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation, OXY

WTI crude rose 2.8% in February, closing at just over $67 per barrel — its highest close since early August. Brent crude gained 2.5%, settling at around $72.50 per barrel.

The move was largely fueled by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Those tensions escalated further in early March when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, which responded by attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Since then, WTI has climbed another 10% in March to over $73 per barrel. Brent has surged close to 15%, crossing $83 per barrel.

OXY, as a major oil producer, benefits directly when crude prices rise. Higher prices mean more revenue per barrel pumped.

Strong Q4 Results Added Fuel

Occidental reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.31, nearly double the analyst consensus of $0.17–$0.18. That beat landed even as oil prices were lower throughout the quarter.

CEO Vicki Hollub credited operational discipline. The company produced close to 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day during Q4, beating the top end of its own guidance. Strong performance in the Permian Basin and the Rockies drove the outperformance.

Revenue came in at $5.11 billion, which missed analyst expectations of $6.02 billion. That’s a 5.2% drop compared to the same quarter a year earlier, when EPS stood at $0.80.

For 2025, analysts currently forecast full-year EPS of $3.58.

Occidental also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share, up from $0.24. The annualized payout now sits at $1.04, representing a yield of roughly 1.9%. The dividend is payable April 15 to shareholders on record as of March 10.

Capital Discipline and Debt Management

The company laid out plans to cut capital spending to $5.5–$5.9 billion this year — a $550 million reduction from 2024 at the midpoint. Occidental says this efficiency, combined with other factors, should generate over $1.2 billion in incremental free cash flow at the same average oil price as last year.

With crude prices now well above that baseline, the actual free cash flow number could be higher.

Occidental has also been actively managing its debt load, announcing cash tender offers and consent solicitations on several senior notes. The company increased the aggregate cap on purchases as part of that process.

Director William R. Klesse added 5,000 OXY shares on December 16 at $38.98 per share, a $194,900 transaction that lifted his total holding to 218,913 shares.

Regal Partners Ltd disclosed a new stake of 140,000 shares valued at roughly $6.62 million, making OXY its 29th largest holding at 0.5% of its portfolio.

UBS raised its OXY price target to $55 and Piper Sandler moved theirs to $54, though both kept neutral ratings. The stock’s consensus analyst rating is Hold, with a price target of $51.24.

OXY opened at $54.28 on Friday, near its 52-week high of $56.34.

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