Bitcoin traders focus on $61k as oil surges past $115 and weak jobs data rattle markets

Bitcoin slid below $70,000 this weekend after a weak US jobs report, and another jump in oil prices revived stagflation concerns and pushed investors out of risk assets.

The largest cryptocurrency fell as low as $65,660, according to CryptoSlate’s data, less than a week after reaching a monthly high near $74,000.

The move put Bitcoin back below a closely watched price level for spot traders and derivatives markets, reinforcing how quickly macro shocks can spill over into crypto when liquidity conditions tighten.

Macro shock hits crypto

The February employment report gave BTC traders the first jolt.

Data from the US Bureau of Labor showed that nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 in February 2026, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, average hourly earnings climbed 0.4% from the prior month, and wages were up 3.8% from a year earlier.

The combination pointed to a more difficult backdrop for markets, with signs of slower growth arriving without a clean break in wage pressure.

As a result, the market reaction followed a familiar pattern where rates moved, equity futures weakened, and crypto followed.

Essentially, traders did not treat the labor report as a straightforward signal that the Federal Reserve could cut rates quickly.

Instead, the data raised the risk that inflation could remain sticky even as growth slowed, an outcome that tends to unsettle cross-asset markets.

That is a difficult setup for Bitcoin in the short run. When macro data forces investors to rethink growth, inflation, and policy all at once, the first instinct is often to reduce exposure to liquid assets.

Bitcoin remains one of the most liquid risk trades in global markets, and that feature can work against it during periods of stress.

On derivatives-heavy venues, a decline can quickly intensify if lower prices trigger forced unwinds and prompt more selling.

Oil adds to the policy problem

Meanwhile, oil prices gave investors another reason to stay defensive.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, told CryptoSlate that oil prices surging above $110 a barrel should be factored into the discussion, given that they have doubled in three months as the Middle East conflict escalated.

Data from CryptoQuant ties the oil price move to rising tension around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that accounts for about 20% of global daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea.

Oil has gained more than 60% since the beginning of the year, a jump that could reinforce inflation concerns and tighten financial conditions.

Crypto trading firm QCP also described the oil move as part of a broader deterioration in market sentiment.

It said tensions in Iran failed to de-escalate over the weekend, sending oil prices above $115 on fears of sustained supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, broader Middle East instability, and a conflict that could last longer than markets had hoped.

QCP said global equity markets turned defensive and added that US Treasuries and gold also came under pressure as crude pushed inflation fears higher and lifted yields, leaving the US dollar as the preferred defensive asset.

For Bitcoin, the oil shock matters because it feeds directly into the rates debate. Higher crude prices can reinforce inflation pressure even as the labor market weakens.

That is the kind of combination that clouds the Fed’s outlook and reduces confidence in near-term rate relief.

In crypto, where sentiment can turn quickly, that uncertainty is often enough to overpower longer-term narratives about scarcity or adoption.

ETF flows and miner selling shape the trade

The break below $70,000 also matters because Bitcoin’s market structure has changed over the past year.

The arrival of spot ETFs expanded access to the asset, but it also made day-to-day price action more sensitive to institutional flows.

In periods of strong demand, that structure can support steady spot buying. In periods of uncertainty, it can amplify weakness if allocators pull back or turn tactical.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted two consecutive weeks of inflows for the first time since October 2025 after back-to-back inflows of $787 million for the week ending February 27 and a net inflow of $568 million for the broader March 2 to March 6 period.

This positive performance marked a significant turnaround for the investment vehicles, which had recently experienced five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling more than $3 billion.

However, the current inflows showed that the institutional bid had become less one-way just as price action turned fragile again.

Meanwhile, that shift came alongside fresh evidence that miners remain a source of supply.

Misir pointed out that publicly listed miners have sold more than 15,000 BTC since October.

According to him, Cango sold 4,451 BTC in February, Bitdeer liquidated its entire BTC treasury, and Core Scientific plans to sell about 2,500 BTC in the first quarter as some miners redirect capital toward AI infrastructure and data center expansion.

Those sales do not necessarily determine price on their own, but they matter when broader liquidity is already tight.

Notably, CryptoQuant's data show that the market has thin liquidity and signs of strain in stablecoin flows.

The firm noted that stablecoin netflows to exchanges had remained negative since the beginning of the year.

Binance showed a monthly netflow of around -$2 billion, followed by Bitfinex at roughly -$336 million, though both figures had improved from -$6.7 billion and- $443 million on Feb. 15.

QCP said Bitcoin had shown unusual resilience in that environment, a pattern the crypto market has not seen in some time, even with the VIX above 29. The firm also pointed to options positioning that looked less panicked than during the initial shock.

It said short-dated downside protection was concentrated between $61,000 and $64,000, while a trade involving 500 BTC of the 24APR26 72k straddle suggested expectations for continued volatility.

QCP added that March’s highest open interest sat at the $75,000 and $125,000 call strikes.

What should Bitcoin traders watch next?

The labor data were not without caveats. The largest payroll declines were concentrated in a handful of areas, including health care, where the report flagged strike activity, along with information, and the federal government.

That raised the possibility that part of the weakness reflected temporary distortions rather than a broad collapse in hiring.

Still, investors are unlikely to wait for perfect clarity. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal, said the US economy has lost jobs since April 2025.

She said total job gains from May 2025 to February 2026 are now -19,000, and that companies are not hiring amid headwinds and uncertainty, with even health care beginning to slow.

For Bitcoin, the next leg now depends on whether the labor shock proves temporary or becomes the start of a broader slowdown.

Much of that debate will turn on the next inflation print and the Fed’s response. US CPI for February 2026, due March 11, will be central to the question of whether inflation is easing fast enough to offset labor-market weakness.

The March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will then shape how investors interpret the jobs report, either as noise or as the start of a more meaningful deterioration.

After that, the next jobs report on April 3 will serve as a confirmation test.

For now, the message from this weekend's sell-off was clear. Bitcoin’s drop below $70,000 reflects broader macro forces: slowing growth, persistent wage pressure, higher oil prices, and a market that still treats Bitcoin as one of the first liquid assets to sell when uncertainty rises.

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