The Chart That Called XRP’s Last Two Rallies Is Flashing Again

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XRP edged up 1.58% to $1.36 on Monday, riding the coattails of a broader market rally without any specific news of its own driving the move. Bitcoin’s 3.15% climb lifted most major tokens, and XRP was no exception, though it lagged slightly behind the pack on a day when Ethereum, Solana and BNB all posted stronger individual gains.

Quiet Day, Bigger Picture

For day traders, Monday offered little excitement on the XRP front. The token tracked the market, volumes were unremarkable, and no major protocol updates, partnership announcements or legal developments moved the needle. It was, by most measures, a placeholder session.

But zoom out, and a more interesting conversation is developing.

The Chart Pattern That Has Analysts Talking

Crypto analyst EGRAG lagged something: XRP may be sitting at a historically significant technical level.

The argument centres on the 100-week Exponential Moving Average, a long-term trend indicator that has, in both of XRP’s previous major market cycles, acted as the floor before a substantial price expansion. In 2017, XRP reset near this level before its parabolic run. In 2021, the same zone served as the base from which the next rally launched. Today, the analyst notes, price is approaching that same region again.

The pattern does not stop there. XRP has also maintained a long-term ascending channel across all three cycles, consistently finding support near the lower band before expanding toward the upper band during bull phases. Currently, price is revisiting that lower structural zone.

Two Scenarios on the Table

If the historical pattern holds, EGRAG Crypto outlines two possible expansion paths. The more conservative scenario mirrors the 2021 cycle, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, which would put XRP somewhere in the $6 to $9 range. 

The more aggressive scenario echoes 2017’s parabolic move, with extensions toward the 2.414 to 2.618 Fibonacci levels pointing to a $20 to $25 target. That outcome, the analyst says, would require a broad altcoin liquidity rotation and sustained late-cycle momentum behind it.

The Caveat

XRP has a history of frustrating both bulls and bears, and the macro environment, with oil above $100, geopolitical tensions unresolved and sentiment still in fear territory, is not straightforwardly supportive of a speculative altcoin surge right now.

But the structure, as the analyst puts it, is there. Two cycles. Same support zone. Same channel. The question the chart is quietly asking is whether the third time follows the same script.