Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail How the war in Iran and trader positioning c Markets Share Share this article Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail How the war in Iran and trader positioning c

How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock

2026/03/10 04:49
5 min read
For feedback or concerns regarding this content, please contact us at crypto.news@mexc.com
Share
Share this article
Copy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmail

How the war in Iran and trader positioning could be behind the surge in Circle's stock

Shares were up another 9.7% on Monday, bringing them nearly to double over the past month.

By Will Canny|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Updated Mar 9, 2026, 8:50 p.m. Published Mar 9, 2026, 8:49 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
Circle stock rallies as Iran war lifts oil, inflation expectations. (CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • Circle shares rose about 10% Monday and are now higher by 86% over the past month.
  • Analysts suggest the war in Iran and its impact on oil prices could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby benefiting the stablecoin issuer.
  • Also at work was heavy bearish trader positioning in the shares and the need for those shorts to be covered after the company reported solid fourth-quarter results.

Already on a tear ahead of the war in Iran, Circle (CRCL) might be an unlikely beneficiary of the conflict.

The stock rose 10% on Monday, outperforming other crypto-linked equities, with the shares now up by 86% over the past month, though they remain sharply lower since their peak post-IPO frenzy last summer.

Japanese bank Mizuho said part of the Circle rally reflects the jump in oil prices following the escalation in Middle East tensions. Higher crude prices could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Other things being equal, stablecoin issuers are thought to benefit from higher interest rates as that means higher yields on their invested dollars.

Indeed, oil prices have surged since hostilities erupted in the Gulf, with WTI crude up roughly 35% since Feb. 28. Higher energy prices tend to fuel inflation and can limit central banks’ ability to cut interest rates.

Positioning has surely played a role as well.

While the company reported solid growth in USDC supply in its fourth-quarter earnings, analysts say the magnitude of the move likely reflected a crowded short trade ahead of the release.

“The magnitude of the move wasn’t purely about the headline numbers. Positioning was the real catalyst,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

According to his data, hedge funds had accumulated sizable bearish bets ahead of the report. That setup created what Thielen described as a “high-probability short squeeze rather than a fundamental re-rating.”

Short interest currently stands at about 13% of the float, equivalent to roughly two days to cover, according to FactSet data.

Read more: Circle moves $68 million in just 30 minutes by using its own stablecoin for internal payments

CircleStablecoinsIranOilInterest Rates

More For You

Pudgy Penguins: Challenging the Pokemon and Disney Legacy in the Global IP Race

CoinDesk Research looks into how Pudgy Penguins disrupts traditional toys market via a phygital model. With 2M+ units sold, they scale via global partnerships and events.

What to know:

  • Disrupting a Stagnant Market: Pudgy Penguins is utilizing a "Negative CAC" model to challenge the traditional $31.7B licensed toy industry by treating physical merchandise as a profitable user acquisition tool rather than just a final product.
View Full Report

More For You

Crypto and stocks add to gains as Trump says Iran war could be over soon

It's been a historic 24 hours for crude oil, which soared to $120 per barrel overnight on Iran worries, but has plunged back to just above $80.

What to know:

  • Crypto assets, including crypto-related stocks extended their gains on Monday afternoon after U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could be over soon.
  • U.S. equities rose sharply following the news, erasing early morning losses.
  • Similarly, crude oil fell to $86 from around $116 as a result of Trump's comment.
Read full story
Latest Crypto News

Crypto and stocks add to gains as Trump says Iran war could be over soon

Bitcoin could be the big winner if the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on for months

Bitcoin rises to $69,000, stocks reverse big early losses, as crude oil sinks back below $100

Josh Swihart's Zcash Open Development Lab raises $25 million in seed funding

Global insurance broker Aon tests stablecoin payments with Coinbase, Paxos

Stock market volatility hits one-year high, possibly marking bitcoin bottom

Top Stories

'Mini crypto winter' nearly over, says Tom Lee as Bitmine ramps up pace of ether acquisition

Michael Saylor's Strategy made $1.3 billion bitcoin purchase last week

Nasdaq and Kraken are teaming up to let you trade tokenized stocks

U.S. isn’t really exposed to oil shocks and that might be helping bitcoin stay resilient

Bitcoin stays calm while other markets panic: key levels to watch

Nigel Farage takes 6% stake in UK bitcoin treasury firm Stack BTC

Market Opportunity
SURGE Logo
SURGE Price(SURGE)
$0.02089
$0.02089$0.02089
+0.48%
USD
SURGE (SURGE) Live Price Chart
Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact crypto.news@mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

This is Trump's tell that all isn't well

This is Trump's tell that all isn't well

Years ago, I was drinking with friends in a dive bar with a jukebox. I went over, quarters in hand, and noticed “It’s the Same Old Song” by the Four Tops, sitting
Share
Rawstory2026/03/10 17:30
How The ByteDance App Survived Trump And A US Ban

How The ByteDance App Survived Trump And A US Ban

The post How The ByteDance App Survived Trump And A US Ban appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. WASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 13: Participants hold signs in support of TikTok outside the U.S. Capitol Building on March 13, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images) Getty Images From President Trump’s first ban attempt to a near-blackout earlier this year, TikTok’s five-year roller coaster ride looks like it’s finally slowing down now that Trump has unveiled a deal framework to keep the ByteDance app alive in the U.S. A look back at the saga around TikTok starting in 2020, however, shows just how close the app came to being shut out of the US – how it narrowly averted a ban and forced sale that found rare bipartisan backing in Washington. Recapping TikTok’s dramatic five-year battle When I interviewed Brendan Carr back in 2022, for example, the future FCC chairman was already certain at that point that TikTok’s days were numbered. For a litany of perceived sins — everything from the too-cozy relationship of the app’s parent company with China’s ruling regime to the app’s repeated floating of user privacy — Carr was already convinced, at least during his conversation with me, that: “The tide is going out on TikTok.” It was, in fact, one of the few issues that Washington lawmakers seemed to agree on. Even then-President Biden was on board, having resurrected Trump’s aborted TikTok ban from his first term and signed it into law. “It feels different now than it did two years ago at the end of the Trump administration, when concerns were first raised,” Carr told me then, in August of 2022. “I think, like a lot of things in the Trump era, people sort of picked sides on the issue based on the fact that it was Trump.” One thing led to another, though, and it looked like Carr was probably…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 07:29
Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Price: Token Rises 9% After Pudgy World Game Launch

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Price: Token Rises 9% After Pudgy World Game Launch

TLDR Pudgy Penguins launched Pudgy World, a browser-based game with 12 towns, quests, and mini-games The PENGU token rose around 9% following the launch announcement
Share
Coincentral2026/03/10 17:22