MANILA, Philippines – Further delays in the first regional parliamentary polls in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) may sow more divisions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), warned nongovernmental organization International Crisis Group.

The report released Tuesday, March 10, said delayed polls will either afford the MILF time to regroup or cause internal divisions to “linger and widen.” This may spill into the 2028 presidential elections, with rival MILF leaders backing different candidates.

“I told my men to go to the mountains, to be ready,” the report quoted an unnamed MILF cadre.

The Philippine government has yet to finalize an election date following repeated delays to the BARMM polls (due to Sulu’s exit and districting laws deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court). Originally, the election was supposed to happen back in 2022.

The uncertainty of election date, together with unrest within the ranks of MILF, “could trigger unrest, whether flare-ups of rebel violence or displays of political discontent.”

To add to this, Manila’s intercessions in Bangsamoro politics fuel the mounting tensions within the organization and erodes trust between the government and the MILF. An example was President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.s’ appointment of Abdulraof Macacua as interim chief minister replacing Murad Ebrahim.

“By repeatedly intervening in the region’s political affairs, Manila has eroded the very foundation of autonomy,” the report said. 

Gains of peace process ‘at risk’

The conduct of the BARMM polls is part of the political track under the peace agreement between the Philippine government and the MILF, following the establishment of the interim government.

Election delays, alongside Manila’s interventions and the tensions within the MILF, have put the gains of the peace process at risk.

Peace monitor Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) also urged the government to quickly reset the date of the elections. CCAA previously said election delays only prolong violence in the region.

“If we do not act now, the promises of democracy embedded in this electoral exercise will mean very little to an exasperated Moro youth who, at this very moment, are being attracted and enticed by the quick and violent actions of violent extremists,” CCAA’s Liezl Bugtay said early February.

The Senate is seeking to reset the elections in September. This will be the first elections since BARMM was established in 2019. Putting off the polls until 2028 is another option so that it coincides with the next presidential election, as was the previous intention when it was initially scheduled for 2022. – Rappler.com