XRP Must Defend $1.17 Gaussian Band to Keep $13 in Sight

TLDR

• XRP trades at $1.39 after losing more than 51 percent since the downtrend began in October 2025.
• XRP reached a 2026 low of $1.12 before buyers defended the former breakout zone as support.
• XRP previously surged to an all-time high of $3.66 in July 2025 after breaking a seven-year symmetrical triangle.
• Analysts state that XRP must hold above the $1.17 upper Gaussian Channel band to keep the $13 target active.
• A break below $1.17 could send XRP toward the mid Gaussian Channel level near $0.73.

XRP continues to trade under pressure as sellers maintain control of the market. The token now changes hands at $1.39 after months of steady losses. Market data shows that price must hold above $1.17 to keep projections toward $13 active.

The downtrend began in October 2025 and extended into early February 2026. XRP price has lost more than 51% since the slide started in the fourth quarter. Price action now moves sideways within a bearish structure.

XRP Breakout and Rally to $3.66

XRP broke above a seven-year symmetrical triangle in late 2024. The breakout followed years of capped price movement under descending resistance. As a result, the token shifted its long-term structure.

The rally accelerated after November 2024 and pushed XRP to $3.66 in July 2025. That move marked a new all-time high for the token. However, sellers regained control soon after the peak.

The price then entered a steady decline that erased much of the prior gains. XRP has dropped 61% from the July 2025 high. It later reached a 2026 low of $1.12 in early February.

Chart analyst Chart Nerd described the move as a structured backtest. He said the former resistance zone has turned into support. He added that buyers reacted at $1.12 and defended the area.

Gaussian Channel Level at $1.17 Remains Critical

Market data shows XRP dropped to the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel at $1.17. This level now aligns with structural support on the chart. Chart Nerd called $1.17 the key line bulls must protect.

He stated, “As long as XRP stays above $1.17, the short-term parabolic outlook remains.” He added that holding this level keeps projections toward $8 and $13 active. The analyst based his view on historical channel behavior.

If XRP breaks clearly below $1.17, the price could target the mid-Gaussian Channel near $0.73. That level sits within the prior multi-year triangle structure. A move there would place the price back inside the old formation.

Chart Nerd explained that past retests of the mid-channel marked major bottoms. He said each retest preceded strong upward expansions. However, he maintained that $1.17 acts as the guardrail for recovery.

He stated, “If XRP loses $1.17, traders should prepare for a deeper move.” He added that much of the recent damage has already occurred. XRP continues to trade at $1.39 at the time of reporting.

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