Circle's Turnaround Moment: Stock Price Doubles, On-Chain Transactions Outperform USDT, Precise Positioning in Agent Payments

Author: Jae, PANews

In today's global financial landscape, the old Tower of Babel of the traditional payment system, which is crumbling, is facing a fierce challenge from new forces.

On March 10, Circle's stock price broke through $110, more than doubling from its low point this year. Behind the stock price rebound is the capital market's reconstruction of the valuation logic of the "stablecoin issuance" business model.

From the soaring stock price on the NYSE to the deluge of trillions of dollars on the blockchain, and the small payments flowing between AI Agents, while people are still complaining about the lack of innovation in cryptocurrencies and chasing the AI ​​trend, Circle has quietly completed a precise positioning between settlement network hegemony and Agent currency sovereignty.

Behind the doubling of stock prices, geopolitical crises have ironically become a driving force.

In less than nine months, Circle completed its IPO, its journey to the mainstream capital market, and the test of a "phoenix-like" rebirth in its stock price.

During the initial speculative frenzy following its IPO, Circle, as the first stablecoin to go public, surged from its initial offering price of $31 to $260 before plummeting to a low of around $50. After a period of adjustment, Circle's stock price rebounded strongly, breaking through the $110 mark.

Circle has undergone a qualitative shift from "speculative growth" to "performance-driven growth." The financial report released in February marked this turning point. Circle's total revenue for fiscal year 2025 reached $2.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64%. In the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4), its revenue reached $770 million, a year-on-year increase of 77%, far exceeding market expectations.

One detail in the financial report deserves special attention: the $70 million net loss in fiscal year 2025 was primarily due to $424 million in equity compensation expenses related to the IPO.

Excluding this one-off non-cash item, Circle's profitability will improve significantly, with Q4 net profit reaching $133 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase.

Circle is leveraging the typical operational leverage effect of a fintech giant: the larger the circulation scale, the lower the marginal cost and the higher the profit.

The complex global geopolitical game has unexpectedly benefited stablecoin issuers. Since the outbreak of the Iraq War, Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 15% in a week. This return of inflationary expectations has further reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts, while maintaining high interest rates provides a better profit environment for Circle, whose main income comes from government bond interest.

Mizuho Bank analyst Dan Dolev believes that inflationary pressures from soaring oil prices will cause the Federal Reserve to postpone interest rate cuts. Data from CME FedWatch shows that market predictions for no rate cuts in 2026 have risen from 79.9% a month ago to 97.3%.

For ordinary businesses, high interest rates mean higher financing costs, but for Circle, high interest rates mean higher reserve returns. As long as interest rates remain high, Circle's net interest income will remain at a considerable level.

Currently, the circulating supply of USDC has reached $753, representing a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase. Even small fluctuations in interest rate differentials can have a significant leverage effect on Circle's net profit.

This "higher for longer" interest rate environment has actually boosted Circle's valuation multiple more than the volatility of its short-term revenue.

It's worth noting that this recent surge also reflects recognition of Circle's "settlement technology premium." USDC's on-chain transaction volume surged to $11.9 trillion in Q4 of last year, a year-on-year increase of 247%.

Therefore, in addition to being an "asset management institution that profits from interest rate spreads," Circle is also a "settlement technology network" that settles over $10 trillion in transactions per quarter, enough to threaten traditional payment giants.

Of course, the capital market's attitude is not entirely unreserved. Even with strong stock performance, the more than $47 million in share sales by Circle executives over the past 90 days cast a shadow, affecting investor sentiment to some extent.

USDC's monthly transaction volume surpasses USDT, marking a shift in power.

February witnessed a turning point for the stablecoin sector. Allium data shows that the total monthly transaction volume reached $1.8 trillion, breaking the previous record.

Behind this figure, the power shifts in "capital flow" are more intriguing than market capitalization growth.

While USDT still dominates with a market capitalization of $184 billion, USDC has achieved a significant leap in transaction speed. In February, USDC processed approximately $1.26 trillion in total transactions, accounting for nearly 70%. Transaction speed determines who truly controls the flow of funds.

In terms of monetary nature, USDT is approaching the status of a store of value, mainly deposited in the margin accounts of centralized exchanges; while USDC is evolving into a medium of exchange, soaring in scenarios such as institutional settlement, prediction markets and trade payments.

Circle's explosive growth in February was mainly due to its ecosystem positioning.

Visa's deep integration was the catalyst. By introducing USDC settlement between acquiring and issuing institutions, the traditional payment process bypassed the cumbersome corresponding bank system, enabling 24/7 settlement. This means that even on weekends when banks are closed, multinational corporations can settle their acquiring funds on-chain in USDC, significantly improving capital efficiency.

The phenomenal rise of Polymarket provides demand-side validation for native crypto scenarios. As a primary settlement currency, USDC plays the role of a "universal currency" in betting on major global events, significantly increasing its turnover rate.

Furthermore, Circle's penetration in emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa is beginning to show results. Local businesses are increasingly using USDC as a tool to hedge against local currency depreciation and for cross-border trade settlement. In these regions, stablecoins are no longer speculative instruments, but rather a necessity for survival.

USDC aims to eliminate the pain points of micropayments, positioning itself as an "Agent-based financial primitive."

If the $1.8 trillion monthly transaction volume signifies the acceptance of stablecoins by human society, then 140 million AI Agent payments herald the arrival of the "Agent Finance" era.

Over the past nine months, more than 400,000 AI agents with purchasing capabilities have demonstrated extremely high payment activity, with 98.6% of the transaction volume choosing USDC.

Why USDC?

Data cited by Peter Schroeder, Global Head of Marketing at Circle, shows that the average transaction amount paid by AI Agents is only $0.31. This tiny amount reveals the fundamental pain point of the Agent economy: micropayments.

When AI agents perform tasks, they incur costs such as API call fees, computing power rental fees, and data collection fees. Within the traditional banking or credit card system, processing a $0.31 transfer might incur fees exceeding the transaction itself. This high cost structure makes it difficult for agents to make payments through traditional channels.

However, the economic reasons are only superficial; the real reason why Agents choose USDC is the technical components provided by Circle.

Circle's programmable suite allows developers to embed wallet management logic directly into their AI code. Through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, developers can have AIs like Claude, Cursor, or Windsurf directly generate scripts that invoke USDC payments. This ease of development has also made USDC the default option for agent payments.

The Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) solves the "last mile" problem. Agents typically run on low-cost, high-concurrency L2 or high-performance public chains such as Base or Solana. On these networks, USDC transfers cost less than one cent and can be completed within seconds. CCTP enables seamless migration of liquidity between different chains, which is especially important for AI agents that require frequent cross-chain resource access.

Circle is crossing its "golden cross." Fundamentals have boosted its valuation multiple, its ecosystem positioning has driven growth expectations, and its AI Agent payment business has opened up a blue ocean market.

In a world rife with uncertainty, the best business is to become the infrastructure of certainty. Circle is at the intersection of network hegemony and agent-based monetary sovereignty, printing the first legitimate banknote for the coming AI civilization, and its prototype as the "central bank of the digital economy era" is already emerging.