Here’s What Happens If Supreme Court Overturns Trump Tariffs

Key Facts

When Could The Supreme Court Rule?

The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether or not they’ll hear the tariff case by Sept. 10, and, if they take up the case, to schedule oral arguments by November. Should the Supreme Court decide not to take up the tariff case, that would mean the Federal Circuit’s ruling striking down the tariffs would go into effect, banning the Trump administration from enforcing the tariff policy. If they take up the case, a ruling on the tariffs’ legality could come out by the end of the year, while taking up the case but not putting it on a quicker timeline means a ruling would only be out sometime before the court’s term ends in June 2026.

Will Any Tariffs Stay In Effect If The Supreme Court Overturns Them?

The tariff case before the Supreme Court specifically concerns the “Liberation Day” tariffs, or “reciprocal tariffs,” that stem from Trump’s April announcement imposing tariffs on nearly all foreign countries. These tariffs are general tariff rates that apply to nearly all goods from foreign countries, with tariff rates set by country. The president also used IEEPA for his tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, which he imposed due to the countries’ purported failing to address the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., so those tariffs would also be affected by a ruling declaring Trump can’t impose tariffs under IEEPA. The lawsuit would not impact other tariffs Trump separately imposed on specific industries or goods, such as automobile tariffs or tariffs on steel and aluminum, as those were justified under different federal statutes.

How Companies Could Get Their Money Back

Legal experts told Forbes companies that paid “Liberation Day” tariffs on imports to the U.S. are likely entitled to refunds of the fees, if the tariffs are ultimately deemed unconstitutional. “If the tariffs are overturned and determined to be unconstitutional or otherwise illegal, then I think that the money has to be refunded, because the government didn’t have a right to collect it,” Robert Shapiro, a partner at Thompson Coburn LLC specializing in international trade, told Forbes. The “mechanism” for refunding the tariffs is “pretty hard to predict right now,” Shapiro added, however, and trade attorney Patrick Childress told Forbes he sees several potential scenarios for how the refunds could play out, including the government “proactively refund[ing]” tariffs to importers or establishing a process for businesses to apply to have their money returned. Childress, a partner at Holland & Knight, noted it’s also possible the Trump administration could fight the refunds and argue only companies who directly sued over the tariffs are entitled to them—but government officials have acknowledged they’ll likely be on the hook for returning at least some of companies’ money. “We would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” Bessent told “Meet the Press” on Sunday about what happens if the tariffs get overturned.

How Would Tariffs Getting Overturned Impact Consumers?

A ruling against Trump’s tariffs would mean companies would not have to pass the increased prices they’re having to pay onto consumers, likely saving Americans money versus if the tariffs are in effect. An analysis by the Tax Foundation found that Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs are equivalent to Americans receiving a tax increase of $1,304 per household in 2025 and $1,588 in 2026, but if the tariffs get struck down, that increase goes down to $292 in 2025 and $387 in 2026. Like importers, consumers could also try to claw some funds back: Shapiro projected to Forbes that consumers could bring class action lawsuits or other litigation against companies that said they were raising prices because of tariffs, arguing since the tariffs were found unlawful and the companies can now get their money back, customers should also be entitled to refunds of the extra money they paid. “I think that some of those announcements” that companies made about the tariffs “certainly would give customers at least a colorable argument for recovering part of those additional costs,” Shapiro told Forbes, though it’s still unclear how any cases could play out.

Could Trump Still Impose Tariffs?

Yes, but not as broadly. While Trump’s ability to levy sweeping tariffs under IEEPA is up for legal debate, there are a number of other federal statutes that give Trump more explicit authority to impose tariffs. That tariff authority is much more limited than what Trump’s done with his “Liberation Day” tariffs, however, often imposing restrictions on how long they can be in effect or maximum tariff rates. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 lets the administration impose tariffs against specific industries or products, for instance, as Trump has already done with products like steel and automobiles, but requires the government to first conduct an investigation before it imposes the tariff. Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows Trump to impose tariffs right away on other countries with balance-of-payment issues, but the tariffs can only go up to 15% and last for 150 days. In his first term, Trump enacted tariffs against China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows tariffs against countries that have committed unfair trade practices, but tariffs under that policy also require the government to conduct an investigation before it can impose them.

What Happens To Trump’s Trade Deals?

Bessent warned in a declaration to the Supreme Court that a ruling against Trump’s tariffs could threaten the administration’s trade deals with foreign countries, as the White House has used the threat of tariffs on countries’ goods to try and get better terms for the U.S. The Federal Circuit’s ruling against the tariffs has already “adversely affected ongoing negotiations,” Bessent claimed, as leaders from other countries are “questioning the President’s authority to impose tariffs, walking away from or delaying negotiations, and/or imposing a different calculus on their negotiating position.” The Trump administration also suggested an unfavorable tariff ruling could “jeopardize” Trump’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, as Trump has used tariffs to punish other countries that are still doing business with Moscow. Childress, a former general counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, told Forbes he thinks negotiations may not be as dire as the Trump administration is predicting, however. The attorney speculated negotiators would likely point to the government’s other authorities for imposing tariffs, which “would sort of maintain the same or similar pressure on trading partners, and keep some of that leverage in place that they’ve gained using the IEEPA tariffs.”

Key Background

Trump announced April 2 that he was imposing sweeping tariffs on nearly all countries, fulfilling a longtime campaign promise despite concerns from economists that doing so would increase costs for consumers and harm the economy. Litigation over the tariffs has been playing out ever since, as small business owners and Democratic-led states filed lawsuits arguing Trump did not have the authority that he claimed under IEEPA to impose such sweeping tariffs. Federal courts have so far agreed, with the Court of International Trade ruling against the tariffs in May, and judges in other cases have also ruled Trump likely couldn’t impose them under IEEPA. The tariffs have so far remained in effect, however, as appeals courts have kept the fees in place while the litigation moves forward. Trump asked the Supreme Court to take up the tariff dispute last week, filing a petition for the court to hear the case on an expedited basis after the Federal Circuit ruled the tariffs are unlawful.

Further Reading

ForbesTrump Will Appeal Tariff Decision To Supreme Court, He Says—Here’s What To KnowBy Alison DurkeeForbesTrump Administration Asks Supreme Court To Overturn Lower Court Tariff RulingBy Siladitya Ray