Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term price trend against gold shows a bullish shift after retracing to a level previously seen in 2017, 2022, and 2023. The potential trend change appears alongside what analysts describe as an “opportunity within risk.”
BTC–gold ratio shows bullish divergence
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe noted that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is showing strength after forming a bullish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart.
BTCUSD/Gold ratio on a daily chart. Source: XA bullish divergence occurs when the price forms lower lows while momentum indicators such as the RSI form higher lows. The setup signals fading selling pressure.
In February, the ratio retraced to a key support level near 12-13 that previously acted as resistance in 2017 before turning into support in 2022 and 2023. As a result, the current level may serve as a potential bottom for Bitcoin’s long-term trend against gold.
Bitcoin/Gold ratio one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAnother reason for this possibility is the change in Bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows over the past month.
For example, the US gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), recorded a $3 billion outflow on March 6. The Kobeissi Letter said,
Gold ETF flows. Source: World Gold CouncilMeanwhile, the 30-day change in Bitcoin ETF flows improved to $906 million in net inflows on March 11, up from a $1.9 billion outflow a month earlier.
Related: Bitcoin hugs $70K range as March Fed rate cut odds fall below 1%
The holdings measured in native units show another divergence. The 30-day change in Bitcoin ETF balances has improved to 12,909 BTC from -34,197 BTC, while gold ETF holdings dropped to roughly 606,850 ounces from 1.4 million ounces on Feb. 13.
Macro creates an opportunity window for Bitcoin
According to Binance Research, the current macro volatility may present an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin. The report noted that BTC has moved similarly to macro assets like oil and US equities amid the US-Israel and Iran war, reflecting how global events are currently driving the price action.
Edit the caption here or remove the textBut capital is starting to return to BTC despite the volatility. The share of Bitcoin trading volume from US spot ETFs has increased recently, signaling rising institutional activity.
Related: Three Bitcoin Binance charts reveal the setup behind the next big move
Yet ETFs still represent only around 9% of total BTC spot trading volume, well below the 30–40% ETF-to-total equity trading volume in US equity markets, suggesting significant room for institutional expansion.
BTC returns 1-year before and after the midterm elections. Source: Binance ResearchHistorically, periods of geopolitical turmoil have also preceded strong recoveries. For instance, US midterm election years often have market drawdowns with the S&P 500 averaging a 16% peak-to-trough decline. While Bitcoin has historically fallen around 56% during those cycles.
However, the 12 months following midterm elections have never produced a negative S&P 500 return since 1939, averaging gains of 19%, and Bitcoin has rallied an average of 54% in all three post-midterm years on record.
As Cointelegraph reported, the $78,000 level is now key to a potential broader trend change in the BTC market.
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