Iran Oil Shock May Hit Bitcoin Miners Through BTC Price

TLDR

• Analysts at Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index said oil shocks linked to the Iran conflict affect miners more through BTC price volatility than energy costs.
• Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel after tanker disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz before easing near $90.
• Hashrate Index estimated that about 90% of global hashrate operates in power markets with limited correlation to crude oil prices.
• The report stated that crude oil use in bitcoin mining is “essentially a rounding error” within overall network energy consumption.
• Hashprice fell to $27.89 per PH/s/day in February after bitcoin declined 23.8% from $78,000 to $65,000.

Bitcoin miners face greater exposure to BTC price swings than rising energy bills after oil market turmoil linked to the Iran conflict. Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index reported that crude shocks transmit weakly into most mining power markets. The analysis showed that revenue volatility, not electricity costs, poses the main risk.

Oil Market Shock Shows Limited Direct Impact on Mining Costs

United States and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets disrupted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20% of the global oil supply moves through that corridor each day. Brent crude jumped from about $60 to above $100 per barrel before easing near $90.

Traders also used decentralized venues like Hyperliquid to trade oil derivatives outside regular hours. However, Hashrate Index said crude oil use in mining remains “essentially a rounding error.” Data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and the Bitcoin Mining Council shows that over half the network uses non-fossil energy.

Hashrate Index estimated that about 90% of global hashrate operates in electricity markets with little crude correlation. The United States, Russia, and China hold the largest hashrate shares. Paraguay, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan follow.

Most of these markets rely on natural gas, coal, hydro, or geothermal sources. Therefore, oil price swings do not directly raise mining costs in most regions. Analysts said utility rate cycles also slow any pass-through into industrial electricity prices.

The Gulf states account for about 6% of global hashrate in oil-linked grids. When analysts include Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, and Libya, exposure rises to 8% to 10%. Still, the majority of miners remain outside crude-sensitive markets.

BTC Price Volatility Drives Hashprice Pressure

Hashrate Index argued that macro effects from oil shocks weigh more on BTC price than on power costs. Higher crude prices can lift inflation expectations and shape interest rate outlooks. That shift can push capital toward lower-risk assets and pressure bitcoin.

The report linked revenue stress to the metric known as hashprice. Hashprice measures daily revenue earned per petahash of computing power. When BTC price falls, hashprice typically declines.

Data showed that hashprice dropped to $27.89 per PH/s/day in February. During that period, bitcoin slid 23.8% from around $78,000 to $65,000. The revenue decline compressed miner margins despite stable electricity costs.

Over the past year, miners who used rolling USD-denominated hashrate forward contracts outperformed spot mining. The analysis recorded outperformance of up to 8.2%. The data suggested hedging reduced exposure to BTC price swings.

Wenny Cai, chief operating officer at SynFutures, said geopolitical tensions briefly strengthened the U.S. dollar. She stated that a stronger dollar created a short-term macro headwind for risk assets. However, she added that global liquidity and Federal Reserve easing continued to support digital asset demand.

Analysts at Bitunix reported that bitcoin trades within a defined range. They placed resistance between $72,000 and $73,500 and support near $69,000. Bitcoin held above $71,000 as exchange-traded fund inflows tightened exchange supply.

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