Polymarket bets on Argentina inflation spike before official data raising insider trading fears

Journalists in Argentina have flagged funny business on crypto-powered betting site, Polymarket, alleging that government insiders are betting on inflation figures.

Bets were made on what Argentina’s inflation rate would be before official figures were released this week.

“Inflation data was leaked before its official publication, and the manipulation was clearly visible in online betting,” reporter Andres Lerner of local newspaper Ámbito Financiero wrote on X, posting a screenshot of the “Argentina Monthly Inflation — February” betting page.

The allegations in Argentina join a lengthy list of Polymarket controversy over unethical bets and alleged market manipulation. Bets have been placed on nuclear war and regime change, and lawmakers have flagged concerns over insider trading.

Last year, bettors told DL News that some people may be working together to swing the outcomes in their favour.

Inflation figures

The allegations centre around a number of accounts that made bets just before official inflation data was released in Argentina.

One account in particular made a number of small bets throughout the week before the official data was released, data engineer at Blockworks, Fernando Molina, posted on X Friday.

No large bets were placed, highlighted Molina, rather punters made many small bets ahead of the official data release.

“But due to the disproportion between the amounts traded 30 minutes before versus the average daily trading volume, they’re clearly insiders,” wrote Molina.

Three wallets made bets. Two wagered $2,000 and the third bet $500, but what caught Molina’s eye was that their usual bets never exceeded $10. Until Thursday.

Polymarket shows that bets on inflation being 2.9% in the month of February surged on the website the afternoon official data was released. A total of $27,885 was wagered.

Data released by Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) showed Thursday that the South American country’s inflation rate was 2.9% in February, slightly above analysts’ expectations of 2.7%.

DL News contacted INDEC with questions but did not immediately receive a response.

Past controversy

Polymarket exploded in popularity and relevance in 2024 when users bet billions of dollars that President Donald Trump would win the US presidency — beating traditional pollsters.

But the platform has come under attack lately from US lawmakers who claim it — and companies like it in the betting market industry — allow room for insider trading and corruption.

Democratic lawmakers in the US this week introduced legislation hoping to ban bets tied to death or war after a flood of bets hit Polymarket betting on nuclear weapons being used.

In July, DL News spoke to various sources that alleged people work together by posting on social media — often using different accounts — or on Polymarket’s comments section, to try and sway consensus.

Mathew Di Salvo is a news correspondent with DL News. Got a tip? Email at mdisalvo@dlnews.com.