Bitcoin (BTC) may approach a market bottom, with a macro model tied to the US and China’s benchmark 10-year bond yields hinting at a potential rally toward $100,000 in the months ahead.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin whales show signs of accumulation that were seen near the 2023 market low.
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BTC holds key long-term support while “oversold,” increasing the chance of a recovery.
History rhymes? BTC flashes ‘precise’ bullish cross
The model, shared by analyst AO, applies a Stochastic RSI oscillator to the product of US10Y and CN10Y.
When overlaid with Bitcoin’s historical price action, the indicator shows that bullish crossovers from oversold levels have historically appeared near major BTC market bottoms.
BTC/USD and US10Y*CN10Y Stoch RSI weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView/AOFor instance, in 2013, the crossover preceded a 8,700% surge in Bitcoin prices. Similar signals appeared before the 2017 bull run (+1,900%), the 2020–2021 cycle (+600%), and the 2023 rebound (+350%+).
In March, the Stoch RSI flashed another “extremely precise” bullish crossover, according to analyst Crypto Rand, who said the signal suggests Bitcoin is “going way higher.”
Whale behavior backs case for a Bitcoin bottom
Onchain data tracking Bitcoin whales support the macro outlook discussed above.
For instance, Bitcoin wallets holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC resumed accumulation during the recent price decline, resembling the behavior seen near earlier market bottoms.
Bitcoin total balance and balance change of large holders (1K–10K BTC balance). Source: CryptoQuantThe same cohort began buying in early 2023 near the price lows before Bitcoin went on to rally more than 350%.
Related: STRC may help Strategy reach 1M Bitcoin milestone before BlackRock
Similar accumulation phases by large holders also appeared before the 2017 and 2020 bull runs. This setup may improve Bitcoin’s odds of bottoming out earlier than some analysts predict.
BTC technicals hint at rebound toward $100,000
Bitcoin’s weekly chart is also showing early signs of a potential rebound.
Over the past month, bears failed to push BTC decisively below its 100-week simple moving average (100-week SMA, the blue line), a level that has often marked the price bottom in past cycles.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewFollowing the March 2020 test, Bitcoin rebounded by more than 1,000% from that support line, while a similar bounce in 2019 preceded gains of over 300%.
Additionally, BTC’s relative strength index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory below 30, suggesting that the price has fallen too far, too fast, increasing the chances of a recovery.
A decisive rebound from the 200-week SMA could send the BTC price toward $100,000 by August, where the 50-week SMA and 1.618 Fibonacci level converge.
Conversely, some analysts warned about a potential bull trap if Bitcoin fails to rise above the $78,000 resistance level, which is key for a bullish trend reversal.
Below the spot price, the areas of interest include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300 and the $60,000 to $65,500 support zone.
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