Expert: Stablecoin Uncertainty Could Hit Banks More Than Crypto Firms

Regulatory ambiguity around stablecoins is constraining traditional banks from fully deploying their digital-asset infrastructures, even as the industry remains bullish about the potential to streamline payments and treasury operations. Industry observers say banks have already invested heavily in the rails needed to support tokenized money, but official classifications—whether stablecoins are treated as deposits, securities, or a distinct payment instrument—continue to hold back scale. Colin Butler, executive vice president of capital markets at Mega Matrix, argues that the hesitation is real: without clear guidance, counsel and boards hesitate to authorize large capital expenditures for infrastructure that might have to be rebuilt in response to evolving rules.

The reality on the ground is nuanced. Several heavyweight banks have already laid down significant groundwork. JPMorgan has advanced its Onyx blockchain payments network, a pathway for faster, blockchain-enabled transfers. BNY Mellon has rolled out digital asset custody services, signaling a move toward custody-ready digital money. Citigroup has tested tokenized deposits, a step toward integrating digital representations of cash into traditional banking workflows. Yet even with this progress, the broad deployment of these systems across the balance sheet remains tempered by the regulatory fog over classification and treatment of stablecoins. As Butler notes, “the infrastructure spend is real, but regulatory ambiguity caps how far those investments can scale because risk and compliance functions will not greenlight full deployment without knowing how the product will be classified.”

Beyond the bank wall, the broader market continues to reflect the tension between stablecoin infrastructure investment and regulatory clarity. The article’s context notes that stablecoins remain the backbone of a growing segment of digital payments, with ongoing attention from policymakers and industry groups about how to codify their use in everyday commerce. Among the tangible signals cited are the large-scale efforts by institutions to build the rails that would support stablecoins, juxtaposed with the lack of a final decision on their status—that is, whether they should be treated as deposits, as securities, or as a new category altogether. In the meantime, the industry’s posture remains one of cautious progress rather than wholesale transformation.

On the macro side, executives and analysts point to a persistent yield gap between stablecoins and traditional bank deposits. The article highlights that exchanges commonly offer roughly 4%–5% yields on stablecoin balances, while a typical U.S. savings account yields less than 0.5%. That divergence matters because it shapes deposit flows and risk appetite. The historical reference to the 1970s—when investors rotated into money market funds in search of higher yields—serves as a reminder that capital can be nimble when returns are attractive enough and the transfer process is frictionless. Today, the transfer from a bank account to a stablecoin wallet can be completed in minutes, amplifying any yield-driven migration across the ecosystem. Still, observers caution against expecting a sudden, destabilizing wave of deposits. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum, cautions that trust, regulation, and operational resilience remain prerequisites for large-scale shifts, even as the yield differential creates meaningful competitive pressure.

As regulators weigh policy options, one potential consequence is a shift toward alternative structures that aim to preserve yield even when stablecoins themselves face tighter rules. The article discusses synthetic dollar tokens and derivatives-based yield mechanisms as possible complements or substitutes for traditional stablecoins. Ethena’s USDe, for instance, is cited as a product that can generate yield through derivatives markets rather than through traditional reserves. If policymakers tighten the no-yield rules for stablecoins, some market participants might gravitate toward these more opaque, offshore-style structures. Butler warns that such a shift could have the opposite of the intended effect: capital seeking returns may migrate to less-regulated spaces, potentially diminishing consumer protections in the process. The dynamics imply that regulators must weigh not only the benefits of limiting certain activities but also the possibility that overreach could inadvertently channel funds into riskier, harder-to-track corners of the market.

Key takeaways

• Banks have built significant stablecoin infrastructure, but deployment is throttled by unresolved regulatory classifications that block full-scale capital expenditure.
• Major financial institutions have progressed in tokenized money workflows (Onyx by JPMorgan, digital asset custody by BNY Mellon, and tokenized deposits explored by Citi), signaling readiness to scale pending rules.
• The yield gap between stablecoins and bank deposits could incentivize faster deposit migration, particularly among corporates and fintechs, if risk controls remain manageable.
• Policy moves to restrict yields could unintentionally drive activity into less-regulated or offshore structures unless safeguards are strengthened.
• As the debate evolves, the most consequential outcomes will hinge on how regulators articulate the treatment of stablecoins and related digital assets within the existing financial framework.

Tickers mentioned: $USDC

Market context: The debate over stablecoin classification sits at a crossroads of regulation, institutional treasury strategy, and crypto-market liquidity. With banks edging toward production-ready digital rails but awaiting a definitive policy framework, market participants are watching how policy shapes the economics of stablecoins and their utility in everyday payments.

Why it matters

The central question is whether stablecoins can function as bridges between fiat and digital cash within a regulated banking system. If policymakers settle on a formal, bank-like treatment—as deposits or a payment instrument—banks could deploy full-scale digital-cash rails, reducing settlement times, lowering counterparty risk, and enabling more efficient treasury operations. The potential for widespread adoption could reshape wholesale payments and cross-border settlement, offering a path to faster, cheaper, and more auditable transfers.

At the same time, the industry faces the risk that overly restrictive interpretations could dampen innovation or push activity into less transparent channels. The interplay between regulation and technology will likely define whether stablecoins act as productive digital cash or remain a niche instrument for speculative trading and yield optimization. For users and builders, the key takeaway is that the value of stablecoins in the real economy depends on a clear, risk-balanced framework that preserves consumer protections while enabling scalable infrastructure.

For bankers, the alignment of regulatory expectations with practical deployment is a gauge of whether digital assets become a mainstream tool for corporate treasuries and consumer payments. If the rules cohere with how banks already operate—risk controls, capital requirements, and compliance protocols—the adoption curve could accelerate. If not, the industry may endure a bifurcated market in which banks proceed cautiously while crypto-native firms continue to operate under a lighter regulatory regime.

What to watch next

• Regulatory proposals or legislation clarifying how stablecoins will be classified and treated for capital, deposits, and securities.
• Announcements from major banks on scaled deployments of Onyx-like rails or custody services as guidance becomes clearer.
• Any shifts in yield restrictions or supervisory expectations that could influence stablecoin issuer strategies and investor behavior.
• Emergence of synthetic-dollar products or derivatives-driven yield mechanisms and how regulators respond to these alternatives.
• Broader adoption signals from corporates and fintechs evaluating stablecoin-based treasury solutions or payment rails.

Sources & verification

• Colin Butler, executive vice president of capital markets at Mega Matrix, comments on regulatory ambiguity and bank deployment constraints.
• JPMorgan’s Onyx payments network development and its role in supporting stablecoin infrastructure.
• BNY Mellon’s digital asset custody services and the OpenEDEN initiative for tokenized assets.
• Citi’s SDX tokenization efforts for private markets and related pilot programs.
• Notes on the yield differential between stablecoins (4%–5%) and traditional bank deposits (<0.5% on average savings accounts).

Regulatory uncertainty and the bank-stablecoin battleground

Regulatory clarity remains the linchpin for accelerating or curbing the evolution of stablecoins in the banking system. Banks have signaled readiness by building the infrastructure to support faster settlement, improved liquidity management, and more versatile treasury operations. Yet without a concrete policy framework, risk and compliance teams cannot greenlight expansive deployment. The balance sheet implications—capital requirements, risk-weightings, and liquidity rules—depend on how regulators categorize these digital currencies. If stablecoins are designated as a form of payment instrument, banks could treat them similarly to short-term cash equivalents. If they are securities, the implications would shift toward investor protection and custody standards. A distinct category might offer a hybrid path but would require new supervisory guidance. In practice, the industry is waiting for a decision that could unlock or constrain tens of billions in investment that have already been mobilized toward digital-asset rails.

Meanwhile, market participants are testing the waters with what is already permissible. JPMorgan’s Onyx initiative demonstrates how far large institutions have progressed in integrating blockchain-enabled transfers into mainstream banking workflows. BNY Mellon’s digital custody ventures underscore the demand for secure, regulated storage of tokenized assets. Citi’s exploration of tokenized deposits signals a broader interest in tokenized cash within the regulated banking ecosystem. Taken together, these signals show that the infrastructure is not theoretical: it exists and is ready for scale, contingent on regulatory clarity.

As the debate continues, the risk-reward calculus for banks hinges on whether yields in the stablecoin space can be managed alongside traditional cash-management objectives and risk controls. If policymakers move toward a framework that favorably accommodates stablecoins as digital cash or as a permissible payment instrument, the banking sector could accelerate collaboration with crypto-native entities to deliver faster, cheaper, and more auditable payment flows. If, however, the rules dampen commercial incentives or impose heavy restrictions on yield and liquidity management, the incentive to invest in these rails could wane, slowing the migration of treasury functions to digital assets. In that scenario, crypto-native platforms may continue to operate under different risk regimes, while banks maintain a cautious stance until policy aligns with their risk appetite and capital planning. The stakes are high because the outcome will shape not only the speed of adoption but also the degree to which the broader financial system embraces or resists tokenized money as a core component of modern finance.

This article was originally published as Expert: Stablecoin Uncertainty Could Hit Banks More Than Crypto Firms on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.