Bitcoin: Flows Turn Positive on ETFs

Starting from last week, the flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned positive. 

This is a significant event for three key reasons. 

In fact, first of all, they were previously negative, so the fact that they have turned positive is undoubtedly excellent news. 

Secondly, they are remaining positive, which indicates the possible start of a trend. 

Thirdly, they are compatible with the beginning of a new accumulation phase. 

The Turning Point

Until Friday, March 6, positive and negative days were alternating in recent weeks. 

For example, between Monday, March 2 and Wednesday, March 4, there were total inflows of more than $1.1 billion over three days, but on Thursday and Friday, outflows exceeded $570 million in two days. 

Instead, starting from Monday the 6th, every day has closed, and is closing, with positive inflows, at least until yesterday. 

Last week, in five days of stock market trading, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total of $1.3 billion in net inflows. 

Yesterday, as the markets reopened after the weekend, the day ended with an additional inflow of 190 million dollars. 

Therefore, it was indeed a turning point, although there is no certainty that things will continue in this manner today and in the coming days. 

Moreover, the previous period was not solely characterized by outflows, because after a challenging January and an even more difficult start to February, the situation had somewhat stabilized starting from the middle of last month. 

The Trend

However, the key point is another. 

In fact, there is a significant difference between a mere pause in a sideways trend and the beginning of a truly new bull trend. 

The fact is that for a few days now, positive hypotheses have been circulating regarding the short-term price movement of Bitcoin, which in turn supports the hypothesis that perhaps a new trend has begun. 

On the other hand, the bearish trend from January and early February has already ended for more than a month, although until last week it did not seem that a bullish one had begun. 

Technically, until last Thursday (March 12), a sideways trend was still absolutely in place, with two failed attempts to surpass the psychological threshold of $74,000.

It is true that today this threshold has been surpassed, but it is still not absolutely certain that the price of BTC can remain above it. 

However, it seems at least possible that last week may have marked the beginning of a new trend, possibly bullish, confirmed yesterday by the sixth consecutive trading session ending with positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. 

Accumulation

However, yesterday another event occurred that strongly supports the hypothesis that a new accumulation phase has begun. 

In fact, the total BTC available on all crypto exchanges worldwide has decreased, reaching the lows of the current cycle. 

The previous low was reached in December, but in January and February, they rose again, indicating a clear increase in selling pressure. This led to the price collapse, as it was also accompanied by a decrease in buying pressure. 

However, starting from the end of February, BTC on exchanges began to decline again, although it was only last week that they returned to the record levels of December. 

To be honest, over the past weekend, they slightly increased, as if someone was preparing to sell. However, yesterday the exact opposite happened. 

In particular, yesterday whales initially began selling to cash in on profits, as they had accumulated Bitcoin in previous weeks by purchasing at prices below $70,000. However, at the opening of the American markets, the selling almost ceased, and a somewhat confusing phase of alternating buying and selling began, which was short-lived. During this phase, it is possible to hypothesize that the whales were engaging in very short-term trading (i.e., intraday).

Once that phase concluded, another began where whales started buying and accumulating, leading to many BTC being withdrawn from exchanges, thus setting a new all-time low for the current cycle. 

Forecasts

At the moment, there are some decidedly positive forecasts circulating, but a couple of clarifications are necessary in this regard. 

First of all, these are short-term, or at most medium-short-term forecasts. Medium or medium-long-term forecasts diverge. 

Additionally, these are forecasts suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could rise to around $80,000 over the course of a few days or weeks, but they do not provide further indications. 

Indeed, regarding the medium term, or what might happen in the coming months, the situation still appears quite uncertain, with positive forecasts alternating with negative ones. The same applies to the medium-long term, although, to be honest, from this perspective, negative forecasts still seem to prevail for now. 

In a situation like the current one, it might be wise to ignore forecasts and focus more on the actual market movements, as these could surprise and do the exact opposite of what is predicted. 

This is also supported by the behavior of the whales, because those moving large capitals in the Bitcoin market at this moment still seem decidedly uncertain, and not only regarding the medium to long term. In this regard, it will be important to verify whether the BTC they are accumulating now are intended to be sold, possibly at a profit, in a few days or weeks, or if they are being accumulated for the long term. However, at the current state of knowledge, the answer to this question remains unknown.